Last season's race

• Winner: Nick Rockett
• Jockey: Mr Patrick W Mullins
• Trainer: W P Mullins
• Owner: Stewart & Sadie Andrew
• Age: 8 Weight: 11st 8lbs
• Starting Price: 33/1
• Season Form Figures: 411
• Previous Best: 1st - Bobbyjo Chase (Grade 3), Fairyhouse (February 2025)

By Paul Jones

IRISH RAIDERS

An extraordinary feat from Willie Mullins last season to saddle not only the 1-2-3 but also the fifth and seventh in yet another Irish-dominated race, with only Iroko (4th) finishing in the first nine for the home team. The Irish were also responsible for six of the first seven home in 2024.

In 2023 the officially 10lb ‘well-in’ Corach Rambler justified favouritism giving the home team some respite but, had he been forced out of the race, the Irish would have supplied the 1-2-3-4-5-6. It was also an Irish 1-2-3 the previous year (and seven of the first nine positions) following on from them being responsible for 10 of the first 11 home the previous season. I’ll go on. After the 2020 running was abandoned, that meant an Irish domination for the fourth year running with Tiger Roll leading home a 1-2-3-5 in 2019 a year on from supplying the 1-2-3-4 plus the sixth and eighth for good measure.

Six of the last 12 Irish-trained winners going back to 1999 had run over hurdles in one of their previous two races. Not so the last two Mullins-trained winners as that doesn’t appear to be his style. After successes for Hedgehunter, I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett, he is now chasing a fourth win in the race, as is Gordon Elliott, so he has surpassed Lucinda Russell and Nigel Twiston-Davies who have bagged a brace of Grand National winners.

‘WELL-IN’ AT THE WEIGHTS

Seven of the last 18 winners were officially ‘well-in’ (six of them by 5lb+) having improved since the weights were unveiled in mid-February, so that is now my main angle into the current-day Grand National. Given how few qualifiers there are to be ‘well-in’ at all, let alone 5lb+ ‘well-in’, this is a big statistic, and the only two horses that are ‘well-in’ at all this time around are the Ultima 1-2 for JP McManus in Johnnywho (6lb) and Jagwar (5lb).

Trying to find the best handicapped horse is usually the best way of attacking handicaps but that sometimes gets lost in all the facts and figures and luck-in-running required to win the Grand National, which has become much more normalised of late.

Significantly, the last two winners in I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett were both officially ‘well-in’ having both won the Bobbyjo Chase in their prep race, won earlier this season by Grangeclare West from Gerri Colombe and Stellar Story, with Captain Cody and Lecky Watson back in the ruck. Stellar Story was not well treated by the race conditions having to concede weight, he but now meets the 1-2 on far better terms.

In addition to the seven officially ‘well-in’ winners in the last couple of decades, the 2022 second and third were also both officially ‘well-in’ having won since the weights were unveiled, Sunnyhillboy was defeated by just a nose in 2012 attempting to become another ‘well-in’ winner and Balthazar King was another ‘well-in’ runner-up two years later.

AGE

The most recent results are the most important and the tide has certainly turned in favour of horses aged in single-figures and notably first and second-season chasers who have won eight of the last 10 runnings. When Corach Rambler won three years ago he led home a 1-2-3-4 for second-season chasers.

The change started in 2015 when Many Clouds became the youngest winner at the age of eight since Bindaree 13 years earlier, which was the first of many trends that he overcame to secure a famous victory. However, the nine-year-old Rule The World managed to even trump Many Clouds’ trends-busting success being a maiden over fences when he won, so he became the first novice (albeit a second-season chaser) to win since Mr What in 1958 and then One For Arthur, Tiger Roll and Minella Times were all successful at the age of eight. And then came along Noble Yeats to become the first winning seven-year-old since Bogskar in 1940. Corach Rambler, I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett were aged nine, eight and eight, respectively.

NOVICES

A novice having just his eighth chase start winning the world’s greatest steeplechase is not normal but that is what Noble Yeats achieved when recording a 50/1 surprise in 2022, but you can argue that it had been coming since the changes to the course and race conditions. Up until Noble Yeats’ victory, the least amount of chases previously contested by a Grand National winner in the last 19 years was ten. Nick Rockett was having just his eighth chase run last season. Although officially a novice, Rule The World was having his 14th chase start when successful as a second-season chaser. Oscars Brother is the leading novice hope this season (but an eight-year-old) after he was fourth in the Brown Advisory on ground considered lively enough for him.

The upshot of all of this is that horses aged under 10 have now won all of the last 10 runnings, which is more or less timed in line with the safety modifications to the race following a run of 13 years in which the winner was aged in double-digits on 10 occasions. This stat is against I Am Maximus, Grangeclare West, Panic Attack, Banbridge, Gerri Colombe, Answer To Kayf, Twig, Champ Kiely, Mr Vango, Amirite, Beauport, French Dynamite, L’Homme Presse, Marble Sands, The Real Whacker, Top Of The Bill and the Cross Country Chase 1-2 in Final Orders and Favori De Champdou of those likely to get a run, so potentially between one-third and half of the field!

Although there have been nine 12-year-old winners stretching back to 1962, no teenager has won since Sergeant Murphy in 1923 and only Vics Canvas aged 13+ has placed since Rondetto in 1969. None remain in the race this year, with the oldest horse being Ain’t That A Shame at the age of 12, who needs eight horses to come out to get a run.

AINTREE EXPERINCE

If you still prefer to look to a more experienced chaser in spite of all the recent, strong evidence to the contrary, six of the last 25 winners ran in the previous season’s Grand National and 11 winners in the same time period had run in any race over the spruce-topped fences.

Since Hallo Dandy won in 1984 having finished fourth the previous season, only Amberleigh House had gone on to win the Grand National having finished in the first four 12 months earlier until Tiger Roll’s second success in the race. Therefore, he was succeeding where 22 defending title holders and 65 horses placed second, third or fourth to take their chance again had failed (bar Amberleigh House) since Hallo Dandy’s success. In addition to negative age trends, that’s another stat that last season’s second and third, I Am Maximus and Grangeclare West, must overcome. It’s also not great for the winner and fourth, Nick Rockett and Iroko, in terms of potential win-only interests, so perhaps look at this quartet in mainly place (and extended place) markets only?

WEIGHT

On the subject of weight-carried trends, given the smaller-sized fields now (34 compared to 40) we look set for more condensed handicaps going forward. As a consequence, the 2024 1-2-3-4 all carried over 11st, so the days of opposing those now look well and truly over in the new-look Grand National. In fact, the 1-2-3 last season all carried 11st 8lb+!

OFFICIAL RATING

Nick Rockett actually became the officially-highest-rated winner ever entering the race rated 163. There were no official ratings when Red Rum won. Despite being only one of three ‘well-in’ horses, Patrick Mullins’ mount drifted from 12/1 to 33/1 with drying ground a concern. Whether he would have won if Grangeclare West had not blundered his way through the final fence is a moot point, but he also ran off 163 and splitting the pair off 167 was I Am Maximus.

STAMINA

The race distance was cut to 4m3½f in 2013 but since then it has been re-measured at 4m2f and 74 yards, so the Grand National just about remains the longest race in Great Britain, and so possessing sufficient stamina levels is clearly still a prerequisite. In fact, and as daft as it sounds, maybe even more so following the reduction of the race distance by a furlong 12 years ago in tandem with making the fences easier to negotiate, which should lead to a faster overall gallop, so there is even less of a let up in the pace ensuring that horses have to stay extra well to win. That said, they didn’t go much of a gallop in 2024, which meant the extraordinary sight of 21 horses in contention heading the penultimate fence. Surely a one-off?

Contrary to what is often quoted by ultra-positive thinking connections attempting to justify their participation, the facts tell us that you certainly do not “need a two-and-half miler for the Grand National” though it has to be said that two of the last five winners had not won over 3m before their greatest success. Minella Times had run well in defeat over 3m when second in the highly-competitive Paddy Power Chase, so he couldn’t be labelled a 2m4f specialist but he did become the first winner since Gay Trip in 1970 not to have won a race over 3m+ beforehand and Noble Yeats had run over 3m+ on his four starts prior to winning at Aintree, though he didn’t win any of those.

OWNERS

It’s looking like JP McManus could have up to seven horses with prospects that reasonable chances could be argued for; Jagwar, Iroko, I Am Maximus, Johnnywho, Oscars Brother, Spillane’s Tower and Perceval Legallois.

Two years ago his I Am Maximus joined Don’t Push It and Minella Times in winning in the green and gold (in fact Minella Times led home a McManus 1-2) but he could easily have had owned five individual winners had the line come one yard earlier for Sunnyhillboy (2012) or if Clan Royal (2004 and 2005) had kept a straight line after the final fence one year or not been carried out when six lengths clear in another or if Any Second Now (2nd) hadn’t bumped into a Sam Waley-Cohen ridden Noble Yeats on his final ride before retiring, so going well over the maximum strikes of the whip on the winner (before the DQ rules came in) was not going to have any implications for him afterwards. McManus also owned the 2017 runner-up, Cause Of Causes, and last season’s second and fourth.

Of the other big owners, Gigginstown were winning the race for the third time in four years when Tiger Roll won it a second time to add to Rule The World’s success. Stellar Story, Favori De Champdou and Quai De Bourbon look like being their three runners.

GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE

The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase over 3m6f at the Cheltenham Festival has developed into a good guide of late, so there will be some fancying the 1-2 of Final Orders and Favori De Champdou. It has been argued that turning the ‘Cross Country’ into a handicap will take away many of the classier horses, but it acts a perfect trial timings-wise for the Grand National plus they doddle around for the first 3m, so horses don’t have a very hard race either ahead of Aintree.

In addition to Tiger Roll completing the Cross Country-Grand National double twice (Bless The Wings was also third in the Grand National in 2018 after he ran in the Cross Country), Gordon Elliott also ran Silver Birch, Causes Of Causes and Delta Work in that contest before they finished first, second and third (twice) in the Grand National and Balthazar King only found one too good at Aintree after he won the Cross Country.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL

A dozen Grand National winners going back to 1991 (Seagram, Miinnehoma, Rough Quest, Bindaree, Silver Birch, Don’t Push It, Pineau De Re, Many Clouds, Tiger Roll (twice), Noble Yeats and Corach Rambler) prepped at Cheltenham. Therefore, two of the last four winners had their previous outing in the Ultima Handicap Chase finishing ninth and first, respectively, so could that bode well for the 1-2 last month of Johnnywho and Jagwar. Iroko also contested the Ultima where he ran down the field but was found to have returned with a bad scope.

CORAL GOLD CUP

The Coral Gold Cup at Newbury is the second most prestigious handicap chase in Britain behind the Grand National, so no surprise that is used to be an excellent guide as between 1987-2005 as many as 18 of its field went on to finish in the first four, of which seven won. However, it then went quiet for 10 years until Neptune Collonges ran at Newbury and, of course, Many Clouds completed a famous double in 2014/15. Corach Rambler finished fourth three seasons ago before going on to win at Aintree two starts later. Panic Attack will be trying to emulate Many Clouds and, if successful, she will be the first mare to win the Grand National since Nickel Coin in 1951. Three Card Brag and Gorgeous Tom both hit the frame when finishing second and fourth, respectively, in a 24-runner renewal earlier this season.

EXPERIENCE IN NATIONALS

Of the last 28 Grand National winners, as many as 15 had won or finished placed in a National of one description or another. The previous season’s Irish Grand National is Numero Uno in this respect, having featured eight winners in the last 27 years (Bobbyjo, Papillon, Red Marauder, Numbersixvalverde, Rule The World, Tiger Roll, I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett). Haiti Couleurs (1st), Quai De Bourbon (3rd) and Johnnywho (5th) all ran at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday last season, whereas Final Orders pulled up and Favori De Champdou finished last of the finishers.

Also note the Scottish Grand National won last season by Captain Cody as three of the last 16 Aintree heroes contested that 4m1f handicap race the previous spring where they finished ninth, sixth and second, respectively.

With regards to the Welsh Grand National, that gruelling test of stamina has cooled as a guide of late featuring just one winner since Bindaree (2002) having contained as many as eight winners between 1976-2002, three of which completed the double (Rag Trade, Corbiere and Earth Summit). Haiti Couleurs will be bidding to win his third big National in attempting to join them.

PREP OVER HURDLES

Some trainers now like to use a race over hurdles to help put the final touches to their preparation and Don’t Push It (2010) and Pineau De Re (2014) both had their final start in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival where they finished pulled up and third, respectively. On the subject of hurdling, 10 of the last 20 winners had run over hurdles at some point earlier in the season.

JUMPING

The Grand National had zero fallers in 2024! Four horses unseated their riders and seven pulled up meaning that 23 of the 32 starters completed. If any further evidence was needed that this is now to all intents and purposes a new race to even 10 years ago, this was it. As for last season, there were three fallers, one unseated rider and one brought down. Overall, though, a sound jumper is not required as much as in the past and I Am Maximus can hardly be described as a good jumper, but he almost became a dual winner like Tiger Roll, who was not the biggest and jumped low and fast. Horses that flick through the top of the birch saving energy are now favoured.

RUNS THAT SEASON

Eleven years ago, Pineau De Re became the busiest Grand National winner for 25 years having raced on eight occasions since the start of August, whereas all other winners since Little Polveir (1989) had run between three and six times. The last winner to have missed the whole of the previous season was Royal Athlete in 1995.

TRAINERS

Lucinda Russell has won the race but will be unrepresented this time. Jonjo O’Neill never completed the Grand National course in eight attempts as a jockey but one victory, two seconds and three thirds from 35 runners as a trainer is a good return and he is set to run Johnnywho who improved for a wind op and first-time cheekpieces when winning the Ultima. Nigel Twiston-Davies won with Earth Summit and Bindaree and is set to run Top Of The Bill.

BREEDING

All but five of the last 26 winners were bred in Ireland from marginally over 50% representation but, with Mon Mome, Neptune Collonges, Pineau De Re and I Am Maximus successful in the last 17 years from approximately just 20% representation, the days of opposing French-breds (no winner for 100 years up until 2009) are well and truly over.

TACTICS

Regarding race tactics, although 24 of the last 34 winners raced prominently after the first circuit enjoying themselves in front or just off the pace, very recent winners have been given more patient rides since the race modifications. Prominent racers have a tremendous record in one-lap races over these fences, which is not quite as strong as over longer distances anymore. Of those most-recent Grand National winners not to have raced bang on the pace once the field heads out for the second circuit, eight have been in just the last 14 years, so ditch that former angle.

FAVOURITES

I Am Maximus’s success as 7/1 joint-favourite two seasons ago meant that there have been seven winning favourites or joint-favourites since 1996, with Tiger Roll the shortest-priced winner since Poethyln won at 11/4 in 1919 (just 22 runners) when he successful as the 4/1 favourite for his second victory. With eight of the last 17 winners sent off at 100/1, 66/1, 50/1, 33/1 (x3) and 25/1 (x2), however, the credit (if that is the right word as far as Form-Book students are concerned, who like to concentrate on the leading fancies) for that can go to down to the BHA Handicapper, who has certainly succeeded in his brief to make the race more competitive.