Last season's race

• Winner: Hiddenvalley Lake
• Jockey: Darragh O'Keeffe
• Trainer: Henry de Bromhead
• Owner: Robcour
• Age: 8 Weight: 11st 10lbs
• Starting Price: 12/1
• Season Form Figures: 27
• Previous Best: 2nd - Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1), Ascot (December 2024)

By Paul Jones

Previous Grand National Meeting experience had been a significant factor as 16 of the last 21 winners since this race was switched from Ascot had won or finished second at this meeting before (and 11 had won at the course before), Hiddenvalley Lake being the latest last year as he reversed placings with Strong Leader from 12 months earlier. It is expected that they will clash again in this race for a third time.

All bar five of those 21 winners started in the first three in the betting, 14 of which started favourite or second-favourite. Surprisingly in retrospect, two of those successes outside of the top three in the market were both supplied by Sire Du Berlais, especially entering the race as the reigning title holder.

Identity Thief was a surprise 14/1 winner in 2018 when taking a notable step up in trip from the Champion Hurdle so, after 13 consecutive winners to have won over at least 2m6f beforehand, he was joining Yanworth from the previous year in successfully taking this step up in distance. All bar two of the 21 winners had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race previously.

Of the 21 winners wince the race was switched to Aintree, 13 contested the Stayers’ Hurdle. In fact, let’s go one step further, of the 21 winners, 11 finished in the first five in the Stayers’ Hurdle (132411111511) positions filled this year by Home By The Lee, Ballyburn, Bob Olinger, Kabral Du Mathan and Honesty Policy with the favourite, Teahupoo, only sixth.

Horses can leave their best form behind them at Cheltenham as was the case with the three-times’ Stayers’ Hurdle winner, Inglis Drever, who was beaten on all three starts at this meeting including after two Stayers’ Hurdle successes. Flooring Porter has also been a beaten favourite twice in the Liverpool Hurdle after he contested the Stayers’ Hurdle. In addition, Whisper reversed Cheltenham form with Cole Harden here 10 years ago and although Iris’s Gift followed up his Stayers’ Hurdle win here, he had to work very hard to justify odds of 4/7 in fending off a five-year-old novice.

The second-best guide has been the Cleeve Hurdle in which Ma Shantou beat Impose Toi (gave 6lb), having featured six of the last 10 winners, five of which finished first or second at Cheltenham on Trials Day. As for the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury and Long Walk Hurdle both won by Impose Toi (pulled up in the Stayers’ Hurdle but won here at Aintree on his seasonal debut), they sit on six and seven winners apiece, respectively.

Royal Rosa has fared best of the novices to take their chance finishing second to Iris’s Gift in the inaugural running at Aintree in 2004, though very few have been given the opportunity.

That is also the best effort posted by a five-year-old. In fact, of the 11 five-year-olds to have taken their chance he has been the only one to hit the frame. Even Kitzbuhel was an unplaced favourite when age five in last year’s race. Just 11 five-year-old runners is too small a sample size to take a strong view but it is their combined poor record over the three big three-mile hurdles run during the spring festivals that sets alarm bells ringing as no five-year-old has ever won the Stayers’ Hurdle and just one has won the Grade 1 staying hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, and that was back in the 1990s.

Eleven French-breds have won in the 21 runnings, though nine of those wins were achieved by just four horses, Big Buck’s, Whisper, Mighty Man and Sire Du Berlais, so it’s been a very good race for a previous winner.

Marie’s Rock and Roksana (twice) have finished runner-up since 2019, so the last successful mare remains Maid Equal in 2001 when run at Ascot and not a Grade 1.