Last season's race

• Winner: Wellington Arch
• Jockey: Jonjo O'Neill Jr.
• Trainer: Jonjo & A J O'Neill
• Owner: Mr M J Gaskell
• Age: 6 Weight: 10st 6lbs
• Starting Price: 14/1
• Season Form Figures: 21212
• Previous Best: 2nd - Class 3 Handicap Hurdle, Uttoxeter (March 2025)

By Paul Jones

With just four winning favourites (including Kateira who was a co-favourite of three two years ago) from 36 runnings and 16 of the last 22 winners being sent off at double-figure odds, the bookmakers are certainly in front for this one.

Kateira was a second winning favourite trained by Dan Skelton having earlier won this handicap with Langer Dan. The race’s most notable winner having later won the Grand National, Auroras Encore, is also the race’s longest-priced winner when he won at 50/1.

The only novice to win in the first 14 runnings was Ninepins but since then novices have become a significant force in this event with a run of 11 victories in the next 23 runnings. We should also not forget that Special Envoy, another novice, fell at the last when about to hose up in 2007.

Don’t be too concerned if your selection arrives at Aintree off the back of a moderate run as 10 of the last 21 winners failed to make the frame last time out, though seven of those either fell or were brought down in their previous start.

They included the 2019 winner, Three Musketeers, having his first run for Gordon Elliott having fallen on his previous start in a novice chase for Dan Skelton, and he was very well backed from 16/1 into 8/1 to do so. On the hand, Tronodor, also for Cullentra Stables in 2021 (when under the licence of Denise Foster during Elliott’s suspension), won despite drifting from 8/1 to 22/1.

The Irish have won eight of the last 26 runnings. Given that their runners have been few and far between recently averaging between two and three runners for the last decade or so, among them 2011 winner, Russian War (also for Elliott), they are faring very well on the whole. Kopeck De Mee was beaten a neck into second for one of just two Irish runners last season.

Of the 36 runnings to date, 16 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival. The Coral Cup and the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle are the two handicap hurdles run over around the same distance as this handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. Two winners came from the Martin Pipe, which was first run in 2009. The Coral Cup has been run since 1993 and featured seven winners. The County Hurdle over 2m1f has produced four winners but only two of them since 1990. Zibeline and Fennor Cross ran in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Nine winners were winning for the first time during the current season (mainly non-novices then) and of those two carried the colours of JP McManus and he has landed this particular handicap on five occasions in the last 27 years and supplied also supplied three runners-up and a third since 2015.

Five winners had tackled fences at some point during the season and the 2015 winner, Theinval, had been chasing in France as a four-year-old. He was trained by Nicky Henderson who has won three of the last 12 runnings (Jango Baie was unlucky not to give him another win two years ago) and he also saddled the 2022 second and third. Prior to his Minella Forfitness winning 13 years ago, the previous 10 winners had at least four starts prior to Aintree. Of the 36 winners, 27 had made their most recent appearance during March.

Peter Bowen loved a bit of Aintree action when he held the licence and had only four runners in this handicap (and just one in the last 14 years) but saddled a winner in Genghis and was most unfortunate not to collect again two years later with Special Envoy who fell at the last flight when all set to win. Mickey Bowen has now taken over the licence. Alan King’s last seven runners have resulted in a victory and five more that returned a place dividend.

No real weight angle but it is worth remembering that Attaglance, off a BHA mark of 144, successfully carried top weight 11 years ago as did Kadi, Khayrawani (second time round) and Crazy Horse in the 1990s, so class had told in the past.