It’s the game none of us wanted, but let’s enjoy it - after all, it could be our last chance to see Harry Kane at the World Cup; he’ll be 36 in 2030.

On the positive side, we know England can’t be knocked out on Saturday night as France await in the third-place play-off - or the ‘Bronze Final’ as FIFA now call it.

Another positive is that France have just lost their No.1 FIFA ranking and are now officially down to No.3, just one place ahead of the Three Lions - let battle commence.

FRANCE 5/6 ENGLAND 11/4 DRAW 14/5 (10pm BBC)

France (Ranked 3) form: 

(xG 0.31) France 0-2 Spain (Ranked 2)
(xG 3.68) France 2-0 Morocco (Ranked 6)
(xG 1.46) France 1-0 Paraguay (Ranked 34)
(xG 3.24) France 3-0 Sweden (Ranked 37)
(xG 1.50) France 4-1 Norway (Ranked 21)
(xG 2.67) France 3-0 Iraq (Ranked 63)
(xG 1.78) France 3-1 Senegal (Ranked 18)

Shots: 121 Shots on target: 52 HT/FT goals: 5-11 Corners: 48 Cards: 4
Goals scored minutes: 7, 14, 20, 32, 45, 53, 54, 60, 66, 66, 66, 70, 74, 82, 90, 90
Top scorers: Kylian Mbappe (8 goals), Ousmane Dembele (5), Bradley Barcola (2)

England (Ranked 4) form: 

(xG 0.52) England 1-2 Argentina (Ranked 1)
(xG 1.04) England 1-1 Norway (Ranked 19) (2-1 aet)
(xG 1.61) England 3-2 Mexico (Ranked 10)
(xG 2.15) England 2-1 DR Congo (Ranked 41)
(xG 1.57) England 2-0 Panama (Ranked 44)
(xG 1.36) England 0-0 Ghana (Ranked 65)
(xG 3.21) England 4-2 Croatia (Ranked 13)

Shots: 97 Shots on target: 47 HT/FT goals: 5-8 Corners: 36 Cards: 9
Goals scored minutes: 12, 36, 38, 42, 45, 47, 55, 60, 62, 67, 75, 85, 86, (93)
Top scorers: Harry Kane (6 goals), Jude Bellingham (6 goals)

What stands out from above is the huge drop in xG for both sides during their semi-final defeats, although England’s was ticking along nicely until the infamous change of tactics - but, let's not dwell on that.

How each team approaches this encounter and their mindsets following an exhausting week will be fascinating, and Thomas Tuchel will know he has pretty much been handed a freebie to win over the doubters before flying home.

Expect some changes in both teams, although Kylian Mbappe - who hardly had a game in midweek - looks sure to start in his pursuit of successive Golden Boots, and is currently joint-top with Lionel Messi on eight goals apiece.

BoyleSports are currently 10/11 Mbappe, with Evens for Messi.

But, for us to get a handle on how this game may shape, it could be worth looking back at past play-off matches - first, though, let’s first see what the head-to-head count between England and France stands at.

Head-to-heads:

England 16 wins France 10 wins 5 draws

Most recent meetings:

2022: England 1-2 France (WC)
2017: France 3-2 England (Friendly)
2015: England 2-0 France (Friendly)
2012: France 1-1 England (Euros)
2010: England 1-2 France (Friendly)
2008: France 1-0 England (Friendly)
2004: France 2-1 England (Euros)
2000: France 1-1 England (Friendly)
1999: England 0-2 France (Friendly)

France came out well on top during the last 25 years in games where the average goal count was around 2-3. 

In terms of how past World Cup third-place play-offs worked out, then this will be England’s third attempt at winning the bronze having lost both previous play-offs in 2018 and 1990, while France won and lost in their two play-off appearances back in 1982 and 1986.

As for the scorelines in third-place play-offs, then there were historically more goals than in the more sedate quarter-finals and semi-finals: 

Past World Cup third-place play-off scores (since 1978):

2-0
2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 2-1
3-0
3-1
4-0
3-2, 3-2, 3-2
4-2

We could be in for an entertaining evening in Miami if the above theme continues, as nine of the last 12 play-offs saw both teams score, with the average of 3.83 goals per game.

England will have good memories of the Hard Rock Stadium following their 2-1 win against Norway, and BoyleSports make them 11/1 to repeat that scoreline in 90 minutes. This game, of course, will have a completely different vibe, and it’s hard to know what the harmony of the England camp is following acquisitions being thrown between the players and Tuchel regarding Wednesday’s loss.

It will also be Didier Deschamps’ final game in charge of France before Zinedine Zidane takes over, and it’s possible the French may want this one more for their coach then England players do for Tuchel. 

In terms of team news, France’s William Sailba is out, so Crystal Palace’s Maxence Lacroix is likely to step in again, while England’s Reece James may also miss the game. 

England vs France betting summary: 

Although England’s semi-final against Argentina proved a slow-burner until after half-time, it’s hard to see lightning striking twice in what should be a more carefree, open affair for both sides.

The stats from past play-offs suggest goals, while past head-to-heads lean towards France, along with them having an extra 24 hours to recover than England for this. 

I’m finding it hard to go for an England win here, so it’s France for the bronze, especially as they also boast a much stronger bench should there be team changes.

Kylian Mbappe will be desperate to get on the scoresheet, and his teammates will no doubt be giving him plenty of the ball, so I’m expecting numerous shots from the hitman. So far, Mbappe’s shots totals were: 3 4 5 5 4 8 4. 

England vs France tips: FRANCE TO WIN, TOTAL GOALS OVER 2.5, KYLIAN MBAPPE SHOTS ON TARGET OVER 0.5 at 2/1. FRANCE TO WIN 3-1 at 11/1.

Look out for David's World Cup Final bets when Spain face Argentina on Sunday.

Read David’s ante-post selections here.