Tim Carroll

This Wednesday sees a competitive nine-race meeting from Happy Valley getting underway at 11.40am - live on Sky Sports Racing. There are three Class 3 handicaps on the card with the feature being race 8, the Oncidium Handicap, over 9 furlongs, offering prize money of more than £200,000.

Now onto this week's selections.

Race 1: Class 5 Flamingo Flower Handicap (11.40am) (6 furlongs)

4 NEBRASKAN has been costly to follow, still yet to shed his local duck in 29 starts, but despite this, he has gone around at single figures in eight of his last 9 outings. But he drops a further 2lb in the handicap and this is a moderate affair that represents a good opportunity to finally get on the board.
 
The selection, who has been placed from a mark 18lb higher than his current assessment, steps back up to 6-furlongs having gone over the minimum trip his last two, and he was runner-up over this trip here in December when having his first spin at this level. Whilst he doesn’t have to lead, and I doubt he will here, he does like to punch forward, and he should have all the favours from the inside draw.

Dangers:

2 Giddy Up has been around for a while and has just one win to his name, but it was from a 24lb higher mark (Feb 2024) and he’ll find the waters calmer now that he drops into the bottom grade for the first time. 
 
5 Thousand Cups is an eleven-start maiden that ran a career best last time when runner-up over course and trip to a rival that has since finished second at a level above this, but he does have a tricky draw for a pace runner. 
 
3 Concorde Star disappointed last time, but he did win over course and trip in December with the selection back in second, although he’s now on 9lb worse terms with that rival.

Race 2: Class 5 Freesia Handicap (12.10pm) (1 mile)

6 DOUBLE BINGO, who beside finishing runner-up on debut in April 2024, showed very little his first two campaigns until the end of last season when placed twice on the all-weather track at Sha Tin, but he’s been far more consistent recently, shedding his maiden status over 6-furlongs in November and finishing runner-up here last week. 
 
On that occasion he was only beaten a nose by a rival that was heavily supported with the first two clear of the rest. That was his first try over the mile and although he’s now had 22 starts, he could have a bit more to offer over this trip, and he’s well drawn given he was sent forward last time.

Dangers:

2 Soaring Bronco was recording just his second win in 31 starts when scoring (dead-heat) over course and trip last time for which he goes up 5lbs, but it was his first start for Brett Crawford, who looks to have a got a good tune out of the 5yo, and he’s won and been placed from higher marks in the past. 
 
8 Verbier, who was placed on the all-weather track at Sha Tin last time, came from off the pace to win here three starts back over 6-furlongs, but he’s equally effective at the mile having won over course and trip from just a 2lb lower mark last season.
 
9 Double Show is yet to win beyond 7-furlongs with two of his three career successes coming over 5-furlongs, but he has been placed two of his last three at Sha Tin, the most recent on his last start which was over 7-furlongs, and he’s entitled to strip fitter as that was his first spin since January.

Race 3: Class 4 Geranium Handicap (12.40pm) (1 mile)

11 OUR LUCKY GLORY will be a bit of a swing, not on form as in context he presents a strong case, but he does draw the outside and will need some luck from there. However, they normally ride him to close and stall 12 is striking at 6% over this trip on the B course this season, making it the joint sixth most winning stall, thus maybe the perception is worse than the actual results. 
 
The selection has been placed four of his last five, all over this trip and not enjoying the rub of the green a couple of times. He hasn’t won for nearly two years, but he is 15lb low than his last win, he goes from the foot of the handicap and is worth an each-way play in what looks a tricky contest.

Dangers:

9 Yiu Cheung Victory will be having his fifteenth start since last September, but he has recorded two wins during that time and although well held, was placed over course and trip last time, he has a favourable draw and drops 1lb.  
 
10 Apolar Fighter has been unplaced his last two at Sha Tin since returning from a setback, but his record at Happy Valley this season reads 1-2-1, with all three starts coming over this trip albeit at a level below this. 
 
5 Shooting To Top shaped with a bit of promise when unplaced but not beaten far on debut at Sha Tin last month, his last run here when over six-lengths behind the winner can be marked up after a tough run planted wide without cover the entire trip, and he’s open to improvement. 

Race 4: Class 4 Lavender Handicap (1.10pm) (6 furlongs)

3 GEORGIAN SIGMA draws the very outside, but he’s shown natural pace in all three starts at Sha Tin, and although races over this trip are usually run at a decent clip, there’s not a lot of pace for a 6-furlong contest and I’m hopefully he can get across to a forward spot without having to exert early. 
 
The selection has shaped with promise all three starts, copping an almighty bump around the turn by the winner when runner-upon debut, which saw the stewards deliberate for some time,  before finishing fourth to a debutant that is now four from four, then third when dropped back to 5-furlongs on the straight course last time. Put simply, this looks a lessor contest than any of those and he should go close if he can grab a spot out of the stalls.

Dangers:

6 Vigor Eye is a five-start maiden that ran a career best when runner-up at Sha Tin last time, he looks and improving type, which marries in with his pedigree, and has been sent forward all five starts, which will hold him in good stead on his first spin at the city track.
 
9 Leading Agility is a four-start maiden that ran better than the bare result on his first start here last time when fourth having been given a bit to do after a tardy start and running onto heels, he’s one of several with scope for further improvement.
 
1 Young Arrow recent figures look ordinary, but he takes a drop in grade having won on his only try at this level last May from just 2lb lower and he should have all the favours from the low draw.

Race 5: Class 4 Lusitano Challenge Cup (Handicap) (1.40pm) (6 furlongs)

11 THUNDER PRINCE is a long standing maiden which includes nine-starts in Australia, but he was placed at Group 2 level earlier in his career and whilst he’s overall record is hardly inspiring, he drops a further 2lbs to a career low mark and would go close if running to the same level as when last seen on this track in January.
 
The selection has been unplaced his last three at Sha Tin but was third over course and trip on his most recent visit here when in behind a rival that has since won at a level above this. He’s now 6lb lower in the handicap, he draws the very inside and Purton is back on board for the first time this year.

Dangers:

1 Speedy Smartie is a 6yo that has blossomed since joining Brett Crawford, winning three times and only outside the top two once in nine starts this season, but he goes from the top of the handicap and with a high draw, which isn’t helpful for his forward run style.  
 
4 Winning Money, who won over course and trip at his penultimate start, was well held here last time but he’s a pace runner that blew the start that night and he could easily bounce back with first-time cheek pieces fitted. 
 
2 Super Love, who’ll be having just his second start on this track, bombed last time but that was on the all-weather at Sha Tin and he did win on the turf there from just 4lbs lower in November and although he’ll find it difficult to lay up with a few of these over this trip, he should be doing his best work late.

Race 6: Class 4 Heather Handicap (2.10pm) (5 furlongs)

4 BEAUTY SHOW was kept safe in the betting on the back of some impressive trial form when runner-up over course and trip on debut earlier this month. Connections may have been a tad unlucky in that they ran into another fellow debutant that obviously is above average and was well supported, nabbing the selection close to home, with the first two clear of the rest. 
 
The son of Shalaa showed blistering pace that night from the same stall he has here, going to the front and whilst he was picked off late, he still ran with plenty of promise. He entitled to improve further and should be sharper for his introduction.

Dangers:

1 Healthy Healthy last win was December 2024 and he’s only 5lb lower in the handicap, which is testament to his consistency, but he takes a drop in grade having placed from the outside draw when last seen at this level, he draws the inside here and whilst he’s on the same mark, he does have the advantage of a 2lb local claim this time.  
 
3 King Profit is a ten-start maiden that looks a winner in waiting having been runner-up his last two, including when favourite last time, but they like to punch forward, and he’ll need some luck from the high draw.  
 
11 Happy United doesn’t do a lot of winning these days but he continues to slide down the handicap, now 21lbs below his last success from just over two years ago, and he should be able to grab a perfect trail behind the leaders from the draw.

Race 7: Class 3 Kalanchoe Handicap (2.45pm) (5 furlongs)

4 TOGETHER WE VALUE, who was a twice winner in Australia and finished fourth in the Black Opal (Group 3 for juveniles) was runner-up at Sha Tin in February on his local debut, a race that has thrown up a bit of form, before two unplaced efforts at the same venue. He then had his first spin at Happy Valley last time when fourth in behind Bunta Baby, who he meets on 7lb better terms for a three-quarter-length defeat.
 
Although the winner won with probably a bit in hand, the selection would have made it interesting with a clear round. He was snagged back to last bar one, before being forced to circle the entire field, rattling late finishing best of all. They will probably look to ride him cold again, but there’s plenty of the pace in the race, which is exactly what he needs.

Dangers:

5 Bunta Baby has come of age as a 5yo, winning three of his last four and although he goes up 7lb for his latest success with a few of these in behind, he ran through the line and probably had a bit to spare, but he does draw high.
 
1 Horsepower meets Bunta Baby on 7lb better terms having finished under a length in second behind him last time, and although he was the beneficiary of a peach from Purton who got him onto the rail from a high draw with the gun run, he draws low here and could end up in the same spot.  
 
8 Copper Core, who won one of his two starts over this trip in Australia, makes his local debut having led when fourth in a recent trial and a market watch is advised from the inside draw with Teetan booked.

Race 8: Class 3 Oncidium Handicap (3.15pm) (9 furlongs)

5 ACE WAR, who was a twice winner (known as King Of Spain) for Gemma Tutty, had run well enough in defeat several times for his previous trainer but has literally jumped out of the ground winning both starts for new handler, Mark Newnham, the latest when hacking up in a Class 4 over course and trip last month.
 
The selection moves up in grade under a 9lb penalty for that facile success and he does have more on his plate at this level, but he also carries 12lb less than last time. He draws high, but over this trip they start this from the top of the straight, he’s been ridden cold in both wins, and it’s worth noting that despite a big meeting coming up at Sha Tin on Sunday, Purton doesn’t ride this weight too often at Happy Valley.

Dangers:

3 China Win was being aimed at the Derby, but that fell apart when he missed a run February, but he has won twice and placed three of his last five, and from a tactical perspective, he’ll probably have first run on the selection. 
 
1 Liveandletlive is finding it tough to get his heads back in front and he is 13lb above his last win as he continues to hit the frame, but he’s a likeable front runner, although he may take a sit behind Highland Rahy here, that is sure to give backers a decent showing again.
 
2 Highland Rahy, who was a thrice winner last season, hasn’t got on the board during his current campaign but he’s had just the two runs this year, a 7lb claim sees him effectively running from 4lb below his last winning mark and from the inside draw there’s a fair chance the instructions will be to point and shoot.

Race 9: Class 3 Roselle Handicap (3.50pm) (6 furlongs)

9 JUBILANT WINNER has taken a while to come to hand but has taken a decent step forward this season as a 5yo, winning three of his seven starts, which has seen his rating shoot up 24lbs. All seven of those starts have been at Sha Tin and he was unplaced here three times last season, but he’s improved plenty since then.
 
The Jamies Richards inmate was a winner at his penultimate start before running fourth behind a smart type last time. Whilst this will be his first spin on the city track since June 2025, he’s a big lump of a horse (1203lbs) and whilst its highly unlikely, he’ll lead a few of these, he does have a bit of pace, which should see him in a good spot from the draw.

Dangers:

1 Aurio, who has won two of six since joining Manfred Man, won well here last time and the third from the race has subsequently scored, but he has been lumped 8lb for that which sees him at the top of the handicap. 
 
6 Greater Bae, who won one of two starts in Australia, broke his local duck at just his third outing in January and lands here having been runner-up to My Day My Way last time, he’s on 5lb better terms for a nose defeat, but Purton jumps off to ride Aurio.   
 
4 My Day My Way arrives on a course and trip three timer having been sent off double figures his last two, and although he overcame a high draw last time, he once again draws the outside and goes up 7lb.

WEDNESDAY’S PLACEPOT

Today’s Tote Placepot will be races 4 through to 9. All up we will be playing 81 combinations (3x3x1x3x1x3), which will cost £8.10 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck. 

LEG 1- 3 GEORGIAN SIGMA 6 VIGOR EYE 9 LEADING AGILITY 

LEG 2- 1 SPEEDY SMARTIE 4 WINNING MONEY 11 THUNDER PRINCE 

LEG 3- 4 BEAUTY SHOW 

LEG 4- 1 HORSEPOWER 4 TOGETHER WE VALUE 5 BUNTA BABY 

LEG 5- 5 ACE WAR 

LEG 6- 1 AURIO 6 GREATER BAE 9 JUBILANT WINNER