This Thursday sees a highly-competitive 11-race card from Sha Tin getting underway at 6.00am, live on Sky Sports Racing. The feature of the meeting is race 3 at 7.00, the Group 3 National Day Cup over 5f, offering over £420,000 in prize-money.
Now onto this week’s selections...
Race 1: Class 5 Nanning Handicap (6.00am) (6f)
1 SUNNY Q will be having his second run of the campaign, having won second-up over course and trip last season from a 2lb higher mark in a grade above this.
The selection has had just the two starts at this level, finishing runner-up on his final start of last season when held-up in the straight and then on his return this season when given plenty to do, meeting trouble and scoping poorly post-race. He’s due some luck, he has a favourable draw, and winning rider Andrea Atzeni is back on board.
Dangers:
5 Good Fortune failed to hit the frame in 12 starts during his first season but broke his duck on his return here last month when heavily supported, but he goes up 9lb and his rider claims 3lb less than last time.
12 Yee Cheong Raider is a long-standing maiden, but he drops a further 2lb here having finished runner-up twice from higher marks last season, and he will strip fitter for a first-up fifth when doing all his best work late.
6 Noble Fans was well held on his seasonal return at Happy Valley, but he did open his account when last seen on this track in July and Zac Purton takes over, though he may need some luck from the high draw.
Race 2: Class 5 Shenyang Handicap (6.30am) (1m)
1 AMAZING DUCK goes from the top of the handicap, but he carried the same weight last time finishing runner-up on his seasonal return over course and trip when in behind the well-supported General Smart, who he now meets on 6lb better terms.
He was having his first spin in the bottom grade that day, and while he has strung together a sequence of placed efforts without a recent win, he showed last time he should be capable of scoring at this level, despite giving away weight to his rivals.
Dangers:
6 General Smart opened his account when running down Amazing Duck on his seasonal return and, all things being equal, there probably won’t be much between them again, but he’s on 6lb worse terms with the selection who had to work across from a high draw last time.
9 All Are Mine, who won over this trip at Happy Valley on his final start of last season, has had two runs back this campaign, given a bit to do both times when doing his best late, but he draws low here and they may have him a tad closer.
2 Circuit Marshal is a low-milage maiden five-year-old with his best result when runner-up over course and trip in March, but he drops into the bottom grade for the first time and will find this more to his liking.
Race 3: Group 3 National Day Cup (Handicap) (7.00am) (5f)
4 COLOURFUL KING, who was a twice winning juvenile in Australia, is a talented type, and although now five-year-old with plenty of runs under his belt, he did give the impression last season he could have a bit more to offer, which is not unusual for geldings in Hong Kong.
The selection was last seen winning over course and trip in June, for which he goes up 5lb to mark of 103, meaning he’ll need a career best. But despite being a late closer, he is a 5f specialist who has run well fresh in the past, and he arrives having looked in good order when finishing placed with no question asked in a recent barrier trial.
Dangers:
2 Crimson Flash goes up 5lb after closing out last season with a win over 6f when he had a couple of these in behind and although he looks better suited to that trip he did win first-up over course and trip last season, albeit from a 28lb lower mark.
7 Magic Control, who runs from 9lb out of the handicap, was third in this last year from a 17lb higher mark and although beaten a panel on his return when third, that was in behind Ka Ying Rising over 6f, and this has always been his best trip.
1 Raging Blizzard, who was runner-up in this last year, concedes plenty of weight and all six wins have been over 6f, but he’s a 115-rated sprinter who enjoys having a strong gallop to aim at, which he’ll get here.
Race 4: Class 4 Chengdu Handicap (7.35am) (7f)
7 SOLID CAR is an 18-start maiden (three runs in Australia), but he has run with merit in defeat several times from higher marks than this, and he lands in what is a moderate looking Class 4.
The selection made his seasonal return when third over course and trip, and although he doesn’t beat the winner, who looks well above average, he was easily the next best having endured a tough run planted wide from a high stall. He draws low this time and a similar effort with a bit more luck would see him go close.
Dangers:
10 Voyage Boss has failed to build on his debut win in May of last year, but he will be having his first start since beaten a lip in second over course and trip in July, and he’s a pace-runner drawn in gate 1 with a 10lb claim.
12 Francis Meynell, a twice winner in Ireland for Michael O’Callaghan, is yet to break his local duck in 19 starts but he was runner-up over course and trip twice from higher marks last season and drops a further 2lb.
1 Excellence Value was well held on his return, but he takes a drop in grade here, he’ll find this more to his liking, and he did win second-up last season from a 10lb higher mark.
Race 5: Class 4 Hangzhou Handicap (8.05am) (5f)
1 JEDI SPURS was hugely impressive in winning over course and trip on debut in June and although very little form has come out of the race, he dotted up under hands and heels in a quick time. He was then turned over at prohibitive odds when stepped up to 6f the following month, finishing a well beaten second, but he did scope poorly post-race.
He showed plenty of pace to lead on debut, and while he should have no issues with 6f in time, he drops back to 5f for his seasonal return, having looked in great order when winning two recent trials.
Dangers:
3 Ka Ying Lightning looks a promising sort after winning on debut over course and trip in May when overcoming a poor start and although he goes up 6lb and will probably be more effective when he gets over a bit further, he has plenty of upside and won a recent trial.
2 Yee Cheong Glory is better suited to 6f, but he was placed from a similar mark his only try over this trip last season, and he has a win and a third from his last two starts at this level.
12 Precision Mind showed nothing his first three starts but defied market expectations when he motored late to pick up the silver over course and trip last month and is open to further improvement.
Race 6: Class 4 Jinan Handicap (8.35am) (1m 1f)
3 SUPER GOLDENDRAGON is a low-mileage, progressive stayer who showed very little in first five starts last season but defied market expectations when opening his account over 1m 3f at Happy Valley in April, before two strong efforts in defeat. One which was slightly controversial (rider of winner making contact the whip) before closing out the season winning over 1m 2f with a few of these in behind.
He does go up 6lb for that, and it’s difficult to know where these types are at the start of the campaign, but he looks a slow burner who has scope for more, and he was tuned up for his return when winning a recent trial over 6f.
Dangers:
6 Romantic Fantasy goes up 5lb having won over course and trip on his return last month, and while that was just his third success in 33 starts, his record over this trip this year reads 2-2-3-1-8-1, with the one unplaced effort coming on a yielding surface.
13 Star Brose rarely wins, but he’s a consistent type who goes from toward the foot of the handicap, and he will also strip fitter for his first-up third at Happy Valley last month.
7 Lucky Year is a nine-start maiden who hasn’t been outside of the top four in his last five trips to the races, including when runner-up over the mile on his return, and he may enjoy trying this trip for the first time.
Race 7: Class 4 Chongqing Handicap (9.10am) (6f)
2 LIGHT YEARS GLORY looked to have a future when winning a restricted race on debut in May of last year but went winless last season in what was an uninspiring campaign, placing twice on the dirt and once over course and trip.
However, he joined David Eustace halfway through the year and was heavily supported when making a winning return over course and trip last month. He goes up 6lb for that, which sees him toward the top of the handicap, but he tanked throughout on his return, running through the line with purpose, giving the impression he may be about to deliver on his early potential.
Dangers:
6 Spirited Steed is a lightly-raced maiden who has hit the frame in his last two, he’s entitled to improve for his first up run and Purton sticks solid.
10 Ka Ying Radiance is a five-year-old, seven-start maiden restricted to just three starts last season after a couple of setbacks, but he was runner-up to a promising type in one of those, and he has had three trials leading into this for a win and two silvers.
14 Lakeshore Hero has won just once in 22 starts but has been runner-up in his last two, including on his return last month, and he goes from the foot of the handicap, although Purton abandons ship.
Race 8: Class 4 Chongqing Handicap (9.40am) (6f)
4 VIRTUS GLORY is a four-start maiden who looks a winner-in-waiting, having been runner-up his last two, including in behind a well-supported winner on his seasonal return last month when he had a tough trip planted wide from a high draw.
He does lose the services of a 10lb claimer, but he gains the experience of a high-class senior rider in Brenton Avdulla, and he should have a far softer commute from his low draw in gate 4. Despite being beaten into second last time, the first two pulled well clear of the others, and he’s entitled to come on for his first spin in three months.
Dangers:
1 Almighty Warrior, who weighs in at just 920lb - which is tiny by Hong Kong standards - romped to victory when last seen in July at just his third start, and although that was a restricted race, he had a 1/10 favourite in second and Purton now takes over, but he does carry weight and draws high.
5 Prime Ace shaped with promise when picking up the bronze over course and trip on his introduction last month. He’s with a leading yard that like to leave something to work with, and he draws down in gate 1.
8 Better And Better rarely wins, but he’s a consistent type who’s entitled to come on for his first-up fifth here last month, and he should have all the favours from the low draw.
Race 9: Class 2 Beijing Handicap (10.10am) (7f)
4 TOP DRAGON has recorded three wins from 14 starts but has more ability than his overall record would suggest, not enjoying the rub of the green a couple of times, including when fifth in last season’s Classic Mile.
He starts off his third campaign over 7f, which is the trip he has recorded all three career wins over, and while this is no easy task and would likely require a career-best effort off his current mark, he’s been off for three months and has really caught the eye at the trials, hence why it’s no surprise to see Purton back on top for the first time since his last win.
Dangers:
2 Hot Delight is an exciting type who shot up 37lb during his first season when winning four-from-five, all over 6f, with his one blemish when fourth on his penultimate start, which might have had something to do with the yielding going on the day. Although he has more on his plate from his current mark, he has looked in rude health at the trials.
12 Public Attention, who was a Group 3 winner in Australia, finds it difficult to get his nose in front but he has run with merit in defeat a few times, and with a recent run he has a fitness edge on a few of these and goes from the foot of the handicap.
1 Sky Jewellery won three of his first five starts but was off for over a year after a bleed, but he showed his was in good health on his return, winning two of his three outings last season, and although he’ll be having his first run for over four months, he’s two-from-two first-up if you include his debut.
Race 10: Class 3 Tianjin Handicap (10.45am) (7f)
9 PAPAYA BROSE, whose connections may be looking at the Classic Series with, is a four-year-old from the Caspar Fownes yard who enjoyed a productive first season, winning two of four - both over 6f - though he did pick up the bronze when tried over 7f, having been given a bit too much to do and eventually outstayed by a vastly more-experienced rival carrying the same weight.
He was last seen in May when winning a Class 4 off top-weight, for which he goes up 6lb and into a higher grade, but he does carry 12lb less at this level. He looked a work-in-progress during his first campaign, and while it’s difficult to predict his ceiling, he’s with last season’s champion trainer and should have plenty more to offer during his sophomore campaign.
Dangers:
3 Areovolanic, twice a winner over course and trip last season, was a runner-up here on his return, and he is now 7lb better off with a claimer taking over on a pace-runner likely to look to dominate from an inside draw.
8 Money Games, who won both starts on the country circuit in Australia, ran far better than the bare result when sixth on his local debut, having come from well off the pace and then held up in the straight, so a market watch is advised.
7 Superb Spirit won two of his first three starts before finishing with the silver when having his first spin at this level when last seen in July, and this scopey type should enjoy stepping up to this trip for the first time here.
Race 11: Class 3 Shanghai Handicap (11.20am) (6f)
8 SPICY STANDARD will be moving up in grade under a 7lb penalty, having won over course and trip on his return last month, and he does dive into deeper waters here, though he won with authority off top-weight last time when running away from his opposition.
The selection is zero-from-three at this level, but he’s with a yard that like to take their time with their runners, so it would be no surprise if his best is yet to come. He has a recent run under his belt, he carries 13lb less at this level, and he should have all the favours somewhere in mid-division from the low draw.
Dangers:
6 Absolute Heart won two-from-three last season and although he has more on his plate now that he moves up a level under an 8lb penalty on his return, he has plenty of upside and is a pace-runner drawn in gate 1.
10 Lucrative Eight is another moving up in grade, having opened his account on his fifth start over course and trip when last seen in July, but he’s another open to further improvement, and he should have the run of the race close to the pace from the low draw.
11 Majestic Valour looked like he might be anything when dotting up on debut last season but despite another win two starts later, he mostly disappointed, however, Purton takes the ride and a market watch is advised.
THURSDAY’S TRICAST
Race 5: Class 4 Hangzhou Handicap (8.05am)
1st - 1
2nd - 2 - 3 - 12
3rd - THE FIELD
TIM'S BEST BETS (scale 1-5 points)
8.05am SHA TIN
3pts win JEDI SPURS
9.10am SHA TIN
1pt win LIGHT YEARS GLORY
10.10am SHA TIN
1pt each-way TOP DRAGON