Tim Carroll's Dubai Carnival preview

This Saturdays sees a hugely exciting 8-race card from Meydan on both the turf and dirt tracks getting underway at 12.20pm. 

With three Group 2’s and five Group 1’s, this is one of the world's truly great race meetings. The feature among several, is race 9, the Dubai World Cup, over 1 mile 2 furlongs on dirt. Coverage is live on Sky Sports Racing.

Now onto this week’s selections.

Race 2: Group 2 Godolphin Mile (12.20pm) (1 mile) (dirt)

3 MENDELSSOHN BAY bombed last time out when sent around in the Al Maktoum Classic over ten-furlongs, which is a lead up to the Dubai World Cup, but he did have a tough run planted wide and whilst he does have the ability to finish his races off strongly, he is unplaced all three goes over ten-furlongs, and looks better suited to this trip.

The Bhupat Seemar 5yo kicked the current campaign off with a win in a Listed contest in November before running with merit in defeat when third to Imperial Commander, who lines up later on the card in the Dubai World Cup. The selection won over this trip two back when he ran over the top of stable companion, Commissioner King, who is likely to be favorite here, and with a strong gallop on offer, from the low draw, the selection should have the sitting shot on his rivals.
    
Dangers:

1 Commissioner King, who was originally trained in Saudi, was runner-up his first two local starts before breaking his Meydan duck in a Group 3 over this trip last time with several of these in behind. He is well drawn in 1 as he likes to go from the front, however, with a few entered that punch forward, its likely to be run at a strong gallop.

7 David Of Athens, who was originally based in America, is a low mileage 4yo that had plenty go wrong when beaten panels by the selection on his local debut in November before a solid effort in defeat when fourth in the Al Maktoum Mile. He has since won three on the bounce at Jebel Ali, including two Group 3’s, and whilst this demands more, he has certainly improved since last seen on the track, and like the selection, they will probably look to sit in behind the leaders with all the favors. 

6 The Camden Colt, who was originally with Richard Hannon, has only been tried on dirt five times, winning here in March of last year and runner-up twice including his most recent start when in behind Commissioner King. Whilst no match for the winner that night, he’s another that will probably look to track the speed, and although the trainers riders, Tadhg O’Shea and Richard Mullen have gone with two other stable entries, Ryan Moore is a more than handy replacement.

Race 3: Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup (12.55pm) (2 miles) (turf)

1 AL RIFFA as a twice Group 1 European winner and currently rated 119, which is 5+ clear of his rivals, he’s the class runner of the contest. The query is the trip as he’s never won beyond one-mile-six furlongs, and we didn’t learn a lot at his only try over two-miles in last year’s Melbourne Cup when he ran better than the bare result having been given plenty to do from a high draw. 

However, he picked up strongly when taking at the Irish St Leger (1 mile 6 furlongs) in emphatic style last September, and whilst that wasn’t the deepest of contests, nor is this. He arrives after a slashing effort at Sha Tin in December when just over a length behind Arc third, Sosie, and whilst it may be debatable if he’ll been seen at his absolute best over this trip, his trainer has had plenty of time to ready him for this, and I suspect class will see him prevail regardless.  
  
Dangers:

2 Al Nayyir, who is a hard knocking 8yo that has form in around the likes of Trawlerman, Coltrane and Vauban, was well beaten in this last year when he came into the race via Saudi, which may have flattened him. However, he was runner-up in the 2024 edition, and he arrives this year having won a lead-up race in good style with Sunway back in second.

5 Sons And Lovers, who held entries in both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups last year, has improved since being stepped up in trip late last year. He was last seen in February when taking out the Red Sea Turf (1m7f) at Saudi at his first try beyond a-mile-and-a-half when he punched forward, which they may look to do here, and he has scope for further improvement over this trip.

6 Sunway who was a Group 1 winner and runner-up in an Irish Derby and third in a St Leger as a 3yo, doesn’t do a lot of winning but he’s been highly tried and is a consistent type. The now 5yo was gelded at the end of last season and kicked off the current campaign when winning here in January before running with merit to finish second to Al Nayyir last time, but he might be a tad venerable over this trip.

Race 4: Group 2 UAE Derby (1.30pm) (9.5 furlongs) (dirt)

5 SLALOM goes into this with just one career start, having literally hacked up in a mile maiden on debut at the end of January when a heavily supported favorite with the Godolphin colt, Devon Island, nearly 7-lengths back in second. 

He did miss a run last month, breaking through the stalls when once again a warm favorite, which obviously is not ideal, and he does move up in grade whilst meeting international competition. However, he blew the hinges off the door when he won, he looked a beast that night and whilst he goes over further here, he an outstanding prospect, and he certainly wasn’t stopping on debut.

Dangers:

3 Six Speed, who along with the selection, has looked the outstanding dirt colt of the carnival, placed on debut before winning his next three on the bounce with the Charlie Appleby Devon Island well held in second at his first go over a mile last time, and he gave the impression that night that he’d handle this trip.

1 Pyromancer is undefeated in three starts all on dirt in Japan and whilst it’s difficult to get a handle on that form, he was a Listed winner last time, he’ll have no issue with the trip having won his maiden over 9-furlongs, and he’s 4-17lb clear of the others on ratings.  

7 Devon Island, who was runner-up on debut at Kempton as a 2yo last September, won his first two starts on this track and although he certainly didn’t run poorly, he was put in his place when 5-lengths second to Six Speed as a beaten favorite over the mile last time, but on pedigree he should get enjoy going over this trip.

Race 5: Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint (2.20pm) (6 furlongs) (turf)

1 LAZZAT is comfortably the best credentialled sprinter in the contest and if this were a handicap he’d be required to give away 5 to 17lb to the others.  The selection was last seen when caught in the shadows of the post over an extended 6.5 furlongs to finish runner-up to the American, Reef Runner, on Saudi Cup night, and they do meet on the same terms, however, the drop back to 6-furlongs is a big plus.

He’ll be having his first spin at Meydan, but he’s a seasoned traveler, and he’s a proven performer on a straight course having won the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at the Royal meeting last year. His sparring partner from Saudi aside, he has little to fear if running to his best and the draw in 7 gives his rider, James Doyle, plenty of options.

Dangers:

2 Reef Runner just edged out the selection over an extended 6.5 furlongs in the Turf Sprint at Saudi last time having won a Listed race at Gulfstream and finished fourth in last year’s Breeders Turf Sprint prior, he looks the main threat if enjoying his first spin on a straight course.

5 Cover Up has had a productive carnival winning twice before running third to Native Approach in a Group 3 trial for this last month, but he was tardy to start that night, he was picking up with purpose over the concluding stages and whilst he has a bit to find with the selection on ratings, he should enjoy a high pressure sprint, with Ryan Moore booked.

3 Lugal is a Group 1 winner from Japan that arrives in good shape having won a Group 2 in December before grabbing the bronze on his return last month and although he was unplaced both times he ventured to Sha Tin, there’s no Ka Ying Rising to contend with here.

Race 6: Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen (2.55pm) (6 furlongs) (dirt)

4 EL NASSEEB is a low mileage 5yo that has won six of his 10 career starts including last time out when he had several of these in behind. His only defeat in five outings during the current campaign was two back when runner-up to Drews Gold, but they rode him on the pace that night, which in my humble opinion does not see him at his best, with all his wins having been when ridden to close late.

This will be his acid test, but there’s no reason to think he can’t improve further, he should have a perfect set-up with plenty of pace to aim at, and whilst the second selection arrives with a lofty reputation, at their current prices of 2/1 and 7/1 respectively (at time of writing), I’d prefer to play the selection.

Dangers:

1 Bentornato, who was placed third behind Forever Young in the 2024 Saudi Derby, had a setback after finishing runner-up in a Grade 1 later that year and was off for ten-months but has come back as a sprinter winning both starts including the Breeders Dirt Sprint last time, running big speed figures, and as the highest rated runner, he might be to classy for them, but he looks short enough in the betting.

3 Drews Gold, who was Grade 1 placed in America, was beaten panels at a big price in this last year, but has won both starts since joining the leading yard of Bhupat Seemar, including last time when he had the selection just over a length in second, he’s still low mileage having missed all of 2024 and it would be no surprise if he improved further for the current yard.

11 Colour Up, who isn’t getting any younger, will be a big price and purely on form he would be hard pressed to take this, but he wasn’t beaten far in this last year, and he runs his best races when waited with off a hot pace, which is exactly what he should get here.

Race 7: Group 1 Dubai Turf (3.35pm) (9 furlongs) (turf)

1 OMBUDSMAN goes first up and he was beaten into second when first-up in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown last year but he went on to win the Juddmonte International Stakes at York after a luckless defeat in the Eclipse when he was left in front too early before being run out of it late, and he then closed out the season when runner-up to Calandagan in the Champion Stakes, and we all know how good that form is.

Whilst he is having his first run of the season, he has plenty of room to maneuver as he’s rated 11+ superior to his rivals. It’s worth noting that Godolphin have had a quiet carnival by their lofty standards with Charlie Appleby sending out just the one winner (Rebels Romance 2/9 fav) since early February, and that may have had some influence on his participation as this fellow is their best chance at a meeting where they are accustomed to success.

Dangers:

3 Quddwah has 15lbs to find with the selection, but he’s had a good carnival winning two of his three starts including last time out when he was a ready winner of the G2 Singspiel Stakes  over this trip and whilst he might not have the class of Ombudsman he has fitness on his side and Ryan Moore retains the ride.

2 Gaia Force is a hard knocking 7yo from Japan and whilst he’s never won at the top level, he’s been runner-up three times and arrives with two silvers and a win over Japan’s premier miler, Jantar Mantar two back from his last three starts. Although he goes first-up having been off since November, he ran a career best at his penultimate start when first-up off a similar layoff.

6 Fort George, like all of these, has plenty to find with the selection, but he’s a progressive type that’s rating has shot up 9lb since arriving in Dubai having won a Group 3 here two back and runner-up his other two including in behind the brilliant Rebels Romance last time. Whilst he ran with merit in defeat at his first try over a-mile-and-a-half last time, he’s probably better suited to this trip at the stage of his career.

Race 8: Group 1 Sheema Classic (4.10pm) (1 mile 4 furlongs) (turf)

2 ETHICAL DIAMOND will be the selection in a race that has cut up in numbers but with three world class runners entered, including the world’s highest rated middle-distance horse, it’s still a race that packs plenty of punch. The selection incredibly was beaten in a Hurdle race at Ayr last April before winning his next three on the flat, culminating in a stunning performance when circling the field from the back to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf Classic in track record time at Del Mar when last seen in November.

It’s not like he beat chop liver that day, with twice winner of the race and multiple Group 1 world travelling superstar, Rebels Romance in second. He takes on the brilliant Calandagan here, which is a big assignment, but there’s plenty of disparity in the betting (2/5 and 5/1 at time of writing),  and if the big striding William Mullins 6yo was able to do what he did last time on the tight turning Del Mar circuit, one can only imagine what he should be able to do on the large flat layout of Meydan.

Dangers:

1 Calandagan, who is 9lb+ clear of the others on ratings, needs no introduction having won his last four including the Champions Stakes at Ascot before his history making success in the Japan Cup, which is a far tougher race to win these days than in the past for visiting horses, but he is plenty short enough in the betting for a horse that has been turned over a few times first up, including when runner-up in this last year.

3 Giavellotto, who ran a blinder to finish fourth in last year’s Arc on going far softer than ideal, is a fabulous 7yo that rarely runs a poor race, but he was well held in this last year and ideally, he’d enjoy a stronger gallop than he’s likely to get here.

5 By The Book has been shunned by William Buick, suggesting he’s the number two pick of the Godolphin pair and he does have plenty to find with the top few, not to mentioned he’s been turned over twice at odds-on during the carnival, but he did win a handicap in impressive style when last seen over this trip in December, and Ryan Moore is a handy sub to bring off the bench.

Race 9: Group 1 Dubai World Cup (4.45pm) (1 mile 2 furlongs) (dirt)

4 MEYDAAN goes into the Dubai World Cup off an unusual preparation having had just the one run on dirt. The Simon and Ed Crisford 5yo, who was tried over two miles in the Melbourne Cup last November, was originally thought to be aimed at either the Dubai Gold Cup or the Sheema Classic, but connections surprised most when entering him for the Al Maktoum Classic last month, which is run over course and trip and is used as a trial for this.

The selection, who was hampered by another runner not long after leaving the stalls, couldn’t have been more impressive, tanking throughout, with Buick having to force a way out at the top of the lane when travelling all over the top of them. He went on to win by over 5-lengths, pulling clear with what looked to be a bit in the tank. The form stacks up nicely with the second, Walk Of Stars, beaten just over 4-lengths fourth in this last year. He meets an outstanding globetrotting in Forever Young, but his last performance was high quality, he has scope for more on this surface, he showed last time that he enjoyed having a solid gallop to aim at, which he’ll get here, and the 7/1 (at time of writing) on offer is attractive, especially for each-way players.

Dangers:

1 Forever Young is likely to go around as an odds-on favorite, having won the Breeders’ Cup Classic and The Saudi Cup since a surprise defeat in this twelve-months ago when third. However, he came into last year’s race off a gut busting battle with Romantic Warrior in the Saudi Cup, with both running below par when beaten favorites on World Cup night. Whilst Nysos gave him a race last time, it was nothing like what Romantic Warrior served up to him, and with a rating of 128, he is 10lb + clear of the others and a worthy warm favorite.

2 Magnitude represents Steven Asmussen who was successful in this race with Curlin in 2008, has won his last two starts and he did have last year’s surprise winner of this, Hit Show, back in second when taking out a Grade 2 at Churchill Downs in November. Whilst he may not be as highly credentialled as a few past American winners, the Americans have an outstanding record in the race having won it fifteen times since its inception in 1996, including four of the last five, and he does like to punch forward, thus the draw in 1 looks helpful.

8 Heart Of Honor at time of writing is a 50/1 poke having bombed last time when unplaced behind Meydaan in the Al Maktoum Classic.  But he’s better than that as he showed with two wins earlier in the carnival and whilst this would require a career best, he’s a big lump that takes a bit of riding that’s likely to be out the back, but this is a high pressure race normally run at a strong gallop, which will suit the Jamie Osborne 4yo.