Tim Carroll's Dubai Carnival preview

This Friday sees a highly competitive 8-race card from Meydan on both the turf and dirt tracks getting underway at 1.30pm. The feature of the meeting is race 6, the Group 2 Balanchine Stakes, over 9 furlongs for the fillies and mares, with coverage on Sky Sports Racing.

Now onto this week’s selections.

Race 1: Deepal SO5 Maiden 3yo+ (1.30pm) (7 furlongs) (dirt)

7 KEY OF MAGIC is a twice race maiden representing the Charlie Appleby and William Buick combination that will be having his first start at Meydan and his first try on dirt, but he does have an American pedigree and will have been well schooled on the surface.

The son of Justify, with a rating of 86 is 8lb+ clear of his rivals in a set-weights maiden, was last seen when third in a Southwell Novice over 7-furlongs in June when turned over as a 4/9 favorite.

He went from the front that day and was a tad disappointing, behind one that wasn’t disgraced at Group 3 level after that and another that won next time out. He’s has been gelded since and lands in what looks a soft maiden.

Dangers:

2 Hidden Secret, who started off with Charlie Appleby, finished third in a 7-furlongs turf handicap two back before a solid effort in defeat when runner-up over 9.5-furlongs on this track last time when he went from the front, and looks a live chance if backing up off just a seven- day turnaround. 

8 Magic Art was runner-up in a Conditions race on debut in Russia last June and shaped with some promise when fifth on his local debut last month, although well held that day, he was in behind the current Derby favourite Salloom and a Charlie Appleby 3yo, but just a length off the third, and is entitled to come on for that.

9 Raasil is a maiden from America that will be having his first start at Meydan having placed twice from 5 starts and once from two goes on dirt, and whilst there’s no trial form to go on, he represents a leading yard with three runners engaged, thus a market watch is advised.

Race 2: Deepal SO7 Handicap (80-100) 3yo+ (2.05pm) (5 furlongs) (turf)

6 SUBITO will be a bit of a swing having had just the three starts on dirt in America, but he ran a high-speed figure (American rating) when winning a maiden at Churchill Downs in September, and whilst he’s never been on this surface, his sire (Breeders Cup sprint winner, Speightstown) produced plenty of turf winners.

The selection showed speed when breaking his duck and although disappointing as an unplaced favourite in a Conditional race when last seen in October, he went from the front that day, and that natural speed will hold him in good stead here. He’s an untapped Juddmonte colt, and the booking of Mikael Barzalona would suggest a forward showing is expected.

Dangers:

9 Miss Yechance, who was a twice winner as a juvenile over this trip from just a handful of starts for Jack Morland, is a small frame filly, but one with an engine and plenty of intestinal fortitude as she has shown in three starts for her new connections at the carnival, and she’ll enjoy dropping back to this trip having won here two back, but she’s now 7lb higher in the handicap.

5 The Man is a low mileage twice winning 4yo from the Richard Spencer yard that was well held in midfield over course and trip on his local debut last month, but they were probably aiming a tad high in a Group 2 that day,  he’s entitled to improve for the run and he’ll find the water less choppy here.

13 Twilight Calls is nowhere near the level he was when runner-up to Nature Strip at Royal Ascot nearly four-years ago, but he continues to slide down the handicap, he drops a further 3lb here having finished midfield in a similar contest over 6-furlongs last time, and he should get a strong gallop to aim at.

Race 3: Group 3 UAE Oaks 3yo fillies (2.50pm) (9.5 furlongs) (dirt)

1 LABWAH, who as the highest rated filly in the race and well treated under set-weight conditions, shaped with promise when fourth on debut over 7-furlongs in November before going on to win her next two starts, the latest of which was over the mile last month.

The Salem bin Ghadayer inmate sets the standard, having already met and beaten most of these. The one niggling concern is the trip as she is a pace runner that hasn’t been beyond the mile, but she was tough last time when headed by Tjareed in the Cocoa Beach over the mile, pulling out plenty and running away again on the line, with the first two well clear of the others. The tempo of the race over this trip should be a tad more sedate and lead or not, she’ll be on the front end with first run on most.
 
Dangers:

2 Tjareed has been placed all three starts and laid down the gauntlet to the selection over the mile last time before being outstayed late, but she had the tougher run of the two that night and she could improve further, but like the selection, she tries this trip for the first time.

7 Dialed To Dubai was beaten a narrow margin on debut over 7-furlongs at Jebel Ali when runner-up, however, she was given plenty to do after a slightly tardy start but got up the hill strongly and she is the one filly that has the most potential to take a decent step forward.

4 Yuno had the selection nearly 12-lengths behind when winning her maiden on debut in November, but has run below that her last two when well held by the same filly, however, whilst she’ll need to improve on her last couple of efforts, it’s difficult to forget how promising she looked on her introduction, and the step up in trip might help.

Race 4: Torch The Future Handicap 3yo+ (85-105) (3.25pm) (9.5 furlongs) (turf)

2 DIVIDEND, from the Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole yard reached a then peak rating off 99 after finishing fourth beaten less than a length is last year’s Britania Stakes at the Royal Meeting, has taken to Meydan, finishing a slightly luckless third on his local debut last month, before an impressive win last time when having his first spin over this trip.  
 
The selection, who was gelded at the end of last year, tanked throughout that night, looking the winner a good way out, winning easily enough given he did take a bit of a tug early. He goes up 5lb for that, which sees him on a mark of 103, but he had half of these well beaten in behind last time, and will go close to repeating the dose with a similar performance.

Dangers:

10 Masai Moon, who won two of his first three starts, was having his first spin in six-months when beaten nearly 7-lengths in fifth by an impressive stable companion over a-mile-and-a-half last time, but he sat in second spot that night and only backed out of it late, he should come on for that and the cut back in trip looks helpful.

5 Claymore, who won the Hampton Court as a 3yo, was well below his best when well held in a Listed contest at Abu Dhabi last time, but he ran a belter from the front when runner-up over a mile-and-a-half here the start prior and although he gets further than this, he’s a pacey type that may enjoy dropping back in trip.

14 Will Scarlet, who was a four-time winner from just nine starts in France, kept on strongly when runner-up on the dirt at Jebel Ali last time having been close up when two spots behind Claymore at his penultimate start, he is on slightly better terms here and lurks from the foot of the handicap.

Race 5: Deepal Super Hybrid Handicap 3yo+ (80-105) (4.00pm) (7 furlongs) (dirt)

7 LAHFATY is a 5yo mare that arrives in career best form, winning over 6-furlongs two back before finishing runner-up, again over 6-furlongs, to an inform rival at her most recent start.

The Michael Costa inmate is an on-pace runner, thus the draw in 1 looks ideal, and whilst she’ll be stepping up to 7-dfurlongs for the first time in over a year, she is a twice winner over this trip. To be fair, this is a slightly stronger contest that her last one, but she carries 8lb less and should have the gun run throughout.       
 
Dangers:

2 Shaq Diesel is a 6yo with a leading yard that makes his Meydan debut having won eight of his 26 starts to Listed level in America, and a market watch is advised as he has plenty of form in around this trip. 

4 Strobe, who was placed in the Group 3 Dubawi Stakes last year, will strip fitter for his recent return in a Conditions race at Sharjah when unplaced, and he’ll enjoy returning to handicap company having recorded a win (Meydan 6-furlongs) and a second (Kempton Park 7-furlongs) from just two spins in handicaps.

6 Zandvoort has run well enough in defeat his last two over the mile having won over that trip from a 6lb lower mark in December, but he has punched forward his last two and the drop back in trip looks helpful from the low draw.

Race 6: Group 2 Balanchine Stakes 4yo+ Fillies and Mares (4.35pm) (9 furlongs) (turf)

6 BLUE NAZARE will probably be short enough in the betting given 4yo’s have won eight of the last ten editions and she’s from the Charlie Appleby yard, who have bagged this race the last six consecutive years. To be fair, the yard, whilst not having a poor carnival, they aren’t hitting the heights they usually do (18% strike rate compared to 30%+ at this point most carnivals). 

However, she shaped as a nice prospect when hacking up from the front over the mile on debut in a Yarmouth Novice last October. She’ll be diving into deeper waters against more experienced fillies, but the form from her introduction is irresistible with five of the six that have subsequently been seen all winning, including the runner-up, who romped to victory at her next start.

Dangers:

3 Fairy Glen will be having her first start at Meydan and although she has form over further, she has won over this trip earlier in her career, she is a Listed winner in Great Britain, and whilst most of her form is on softer going, horses that like some dig in the ground tend to act on the thick lush Bermuda grass covering at Meydan.

1 Dubai Beach is a daughter of Blue Point that tries this trip for the first time, but she ran through the line when she came from off the pace to take out the Cape Verdi over the mile last time with Dubai Treasure half-a-length back in third, and should be able to confirm that form despite being 2lb worse off with her stable companion.

2 Dubai Treasure is the highest rated filly in a set-weight races and she ran with merit in defeat last time when beaten into third in a three way photo in the Cape Verdi over the mile, which was her first try beyond 7-furlongs, but unless she can grab a soft lead, she’s likely to be venerable over this trip.

Race 7: Listed Dubai Road to Kentucky Derby 3yo’s (5.10pm) (9.5 furlongs) (dirt)

1 SALLOOM, who is a strapping colt with a strong American pedigree, went off favorite when making a winning debut over the mile here last month. The Bhupat Seemar 3yo blew the hinges of the door that night, winning by 7-lengths with a low mileage Godolphin 3yo a long way back in second.

The selection punched forward on debut and when a rival was sent around his outside early to take it up, Tadhg O’Shea rather arrogantly peeled off his back, slipped the selection some rein, to take over again, without raising a sweat, then clearing out down the lane, seemingly with plenty in hand.

He looks a super colt in the making, and if he wins here, he picks up 20 points for the Kentucky Derby with the winner of the UAE Derby (World Cup night) picking up 100 points (60-30-15-10), and given 40 points normally gets you into to the American Classic, if the owner has those sort of ambitions, this fellow could be a smokey.
 
Dangers:

4 Raajeh, who won a Conditions race on debut in December, never threatened last time when fifth, one spot behind Lino Padrino in the Guineas, but he was picking up late over the mile that night and he should enjoy the step up in trip. 

2 Lino Padrino was hugely impressive when winning over 7-furlongs on debut in December and whilst he has since been turned over twice, once when favorite, he had genuine excuses two back and ran well enough in defeat last time when fourth in the Guineas from a high draw.

3 Brotherly Love won his maiden over a mile two back before an unplaced effort in the Guineas when in behind a few that reoppose, but he did cop a whack early in the race and he had in the past given the impression he’d enjoy going over further.

Race 8: Group 3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy 4yo+ (5.45pm) (1 mile 6 furlongs) (turf)

1 SUNWAY, who was unplaced but not beaten far in the Prix Royal Oak at Saint Cloud when last seen in Europe in October, was having his first spin since being gelded when winning over course and trip last month with two decent types (rated 110 and 112) filling the placings. Whilst that was his first win in over two-years, he has run with merit in defeat several times with eight of his defeats being at the very top level.

The David Menseiur 5yo, who is a former Group 1 winner himself and is the highest rated runner here, sat outside the leader last time but was travelling so strongly the rider pushed the button 500m out, shooting clear at the top of the straight and although only holding on by half-a-length, he’s entitled to strip fitter for that.     
 
Dangers:

3 By The Book is a low mileage son of Frankel that looked like a Group horse hiding in a handicap when hacking up in impressive style here two back, but he disappointed when a beaten odds-on favorite last time  with no obvious excuse, however, this yard don’t send them out a few weeks later unless they are convinced they are where they need to be, and he could bounce back.

6 Aeronautic has a little bit to find with a few of these on ratings but the Joseph O’Brien 5yo caught the eye when doing his best work late to grab third in a-mile-and-a-half handicap on his local debut last month despite being tight for room, and although he has more on his plate here, he’ll stay the trip strongly.

2 Al Nayyir has form on this track having been runner-up in the 2024 Dubai Gold Cup with some quality types in behind including Trawlerman and Giavellotto, but he will be having his first spin since August and although a win is not out of the question, whatever he does here is a bonus leading into World Cup night.