Updated 9.18 - all selections online.
The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Brownstown Stakes, Sunday afternoon’s feature at Fairyhouse, has famously never been won by Aidan O’Brien and the market for the race suggests that is unlikely to change this year.
That market looks largely spot on at the moment with the correct two at the front; I would have Surrounding a little shorter but there is no great edge at current odds.
She has thrived this year in concert with the Michael Halford yard as a whole, looks to have the pace for this turning seven furlongs and clocked a fast time-figure last time but Perfection has her chance after an unlucky seventh in the Wokingham.
Noel Meade is another trainer enjoying a good 2019, with nine winners from 53 runners and 23 places this flat season for an actual over expected of 1.28, and his LAURA BULLION looks a bit overpriced in the Making Dreams Come True Handicap (4:55).
Having done some of her racing over sprint trips as a juvenile, she has improved for having her stamina drawn out at three, winning at Dundalk in April from a next time out winner (Lyrical Attraction who re-opposes 5lb worse terms) and is only 3lb higher now despite shaping well on both subsequent starts.
The first of those came at Leopardstown where she was keen in midfield off a slow pace, had to wait for a gap before the straight by which time the winner had gotten first run but ran on well to take second despite some barging with the third.
The winner that day was King’s Vow, since neck second in the Ulster Derby off 11lb higher, so the form looks solid.
Off for 57 days afterwards, she was fourth of five over ten furlongs at Roscommon on Monday but that doesn’t tell the full story as she looked a possible winner halfway up the straight before lack of fitness caught her out and she should come on for that with the extra two furlongs and a weaker race further positives.
Tony Keenan’s next tipping column will be on Thursday, July 18th.
Tony's Best Bets (scale 1-5 points):
1pt win LAURA BULLION (100-30 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, 3-1 general)