Published 1st March

I was torn between analysing the William Hill County Hurdle and the Cup Handicap Hurdle for the fourth (and final) handicap contest ahead of the Cheltenham festival. The more I looked at the latter, the more horses I added to the shortlist, and I just couldn’t narrow it down to a selection at this point.

However, one horse jumped out at me when looking at the William Hill County Hurdle and I think she will take the world of beating. “She” is considered a positive in handicaps at the festival, with mares having a strong record in festival handicaps, including Kargese in this very race last year. Two mares head the betting this time at the time of writing, but I have gone further down the market.

Usually, Willie Mullins is my starting point in this contest, but I don’t think Murcia holds anywhere near as strong claims as their fancied ones in previous years. Karbau was the big springer in recent days, and while this race should be run to suit, is he really that well-handicapped off a mark of 150?

If Storm Heart did turn up here, I would give him a better chance off just 1lb higher than Karbau, but the vibes are that he is heading for the Cup Handicap Hurdle on Wednesday (one of many on that shortlist).

SIXANDAHALF was my most painful loss at last season’s festival, particularly given I thought she was home and hosed in the Mares’ Novices Hurdle. Having eventually come around to watching the race back recently, I think this test could be absolutely perfect for her and I hope she’ll be delivered after the last (or on the line). The ghost of last year may be laid to rest.

Her latest effort at Leopardstown over Christmas was much better than the result suggests. The yards horses were underperforming at the time, but she again travelled well into the race before fading behind Wodhooh and Feet Of A Dancer. That form has been boosted since and I don’t think she really stays two-and-a-half miles.

She travels so well that a strongly-run two miles could be perfect for her and last year’s novice form looks strong considering the pair pulled miles clear. Diva Luna was six lengths back in third and I think she is a good mare. I’m still convinced Sixandahalf was the best of them, and I’d have preferred if she had something to give her a lead for longer.

That was over this course and distance, so she must have a chance back in a handicap off a mark of 139. Gavin Cromwell mentioned the Morebattle as a possible alternative in a recent stable tour, but with that out of the way now, surely they will take up the entry.

I like how she has been campaigned this season and it suggests to me that they have been minding her mark, while getting in the couple of runs needed to qualify.

Furthermore, she has been freshened up since Christmas and her record over hurdles off a break reads 124, with the second and fourth being the aforementioned efforts.

I think it is worth taking the NRNB in case they decide not to travel, but if she does I can see her going off much shorter than 20/1 and I’ll be very disappointed if she doesn’t hit the frame, at least. It looks to me like she has been laid out for this and she must be better than a mark of 139!