Latest year's race

• Winner: Stumptown
• Jockey: Keith Donoghue
• Trainer: Gavin P Cromwell
• Owner: Furze Bush Syndicate
• Age: 8 Weight: 11st 10lbs
• Starting Price: 5/2
• Season Form Figures: U111
• Previous Best: 1st - Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase, Cheltenham (December 2024)

By Paul Jones

The course lends itself to close finishes with so many twists and turns, and for three and a half miles they potter about before starting to ratchet it up. Therefore the winner usually has to have gears in order to remain in contention when the pace quickens up, and then often display a turn of foot after the final obstacle, so out-and-out stayers generally don’t possess the tactical speed to win this.

After eight years of being run as a conditions’ chase, the ‘Cross Country’ reverted back to being a handicap last season. So, how do we play it trends-wise? One option is to overlook all runnings between 2016-2024 and simply go back to stats when it was a handicap. However, unlike back then it’s not a full handicap, as 20lb will cover the top and bottom weight, so as far as I'm concerned this is now a new race, so it's a case of virtually starting from scratch - save cherry-picking a few stats that I still feel could still be relevant.

One of those is that, following his success on Stumptown in last season’s race, Keith Donohoe has now ridden the winner in five of the last seven runnings, taking over from Nina Carberry as the most successful jockey over these fences of all races at the course after Final Orders won here in December. He is expected to partner Stumptown once again, who has since won the Velká Pardubická and so is now 5-5 in cross country races since unseating his rider on his banks’ debut when badly hampered.

Given the 20lb weight range, the classier horses can still be favoured, and with Stumptown set to be the clear top weight, that means a fair few of his rivals will be running from out of the handicap. Some will even be ineligible given the new rule in place for all handicaps in Britain since July that no horse can run from more than 15lb out of the handicap.

Sixteen of the last 20 winners had run in a Cheltenham cross country chase earlier in the season, so that’s the trend against Stumptown who has been purposely kept fresh since winning in the Czech Republic in mid-October.

Statistically, the Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase in December - won this season by Final Orders - has been a better guide than the race contested over the same fences in November (postponed to January this season) won by Favori De Champdou, with half of the last 20 winners at the Cheltenham Festival contesting this race (11 if you count Josie’s Orders, who later was awarded the race on a technicality). In fact, last season’s 1-2-3-4-5 in March all ran in the December version, while if you only count the 11 runnings when both races were handicaps, seven winners at the Cheltenham Festival ran in the December contest. Final Orders beat J’Arrive De L’Est into second on good ground, which is important to the winner, but he was then only fifth on soft ground when returning in January. J’Arrive De L’Est was runner-up in both races.

Gigginstown have won five of the last six editions when it was run as a conditions contest (Tiger Roll x3 and Delta Work x2), as well as with Rivage D’Or when it was previously run as a handicap, and Favori De Champdou is their big hope this season after winning here in January to follow up his 66/1 win in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Conflated could also be joining his stablemate in the maroon and white silks.

By the way, the French would laugh at this being called a cross country chase, hence why they have such a good record in the races run here earlier in the season down the years, as their cross country courses are so much harder. Their only entry this season is the David Cottin-trained six-year-old Karre D’As. Cottin also won this with another six-year-old in Easysland in 2020.

The last British-trained winner, however, was Balthazar King back in 2014. In fact, only Philip Hobbs has trained the winner over the cross country fences in March for the home team.

Gordon Elliott has prepared six of the last eight winners, and in one of those two years that he missed out he supplied the runner-up when Tiger Roll finished second to Easysland. His number-one hope from his five entries this season looks to be Favori De Champdou, but also respect The Goffer who made late headway to finish fourth in last season’s race and has finished second in both cross country races at Punchestown this season - first behind Desertmore House in the Risk Of Thunder in November (Final Orders finished third) and then Vanillier in the P.P. Hogan in February (when Conflated finished third).

The P.P. Hogan has been Ireland’s best guide in the same season, having thrown up three 1-2s and four winners in total from its 19 runnings, though only one winner in the last 17 years.

After Delta Work’s victories here, including on his debut in a cross country chase following four Grade 1 wins earlier in his career, don't be surprised if a name or two with no banks' race experience under Rules takes its chance, as they will have been well schooled over the course as part of the qualification process. French Dynamite looks the most interesting of those entries this season. Only four winners of the now 75 races to have been run over this course were cross country debutants, however, with 43 of those having won or finished placed over these particular obstacles previously.

JP McManus is chasing his eighth Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase prize at the Cheltenham Festival (his first five were all trained by Enda Bolger), but he looks weaker in this division than usual this season, with Fakir D’Oudairies being his sole entry.