Total Performance Data tips: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

By Adam Mills

Published 11:15 - 28/09  

I’m going to start our build up to this weekend with a look at the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday. This race revolves around DARYZ. Last year’s winner has already won both the Prix Ganay and Prix D’Ispahan at Group 1 level this year and cantered his way to victory in the Prix Foy last month, closing with splits of 10.49 and 11.38s.

That was the third time this year that he has recorded sub 11s furlong splits at the track and with the track likely to be riding on the quick side, at least by ParisLongchamp standards, that turn-of-foot is likely to make him very hard to beat. Having won 7 of his 8 starts in Paris, the second half of his campaign has all been geared towards this bid to retain his crown and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off Francis-Henri Graffard’s star in his attempt to emulate the likes of Enable and Treve as a multiple winner of Europe’s greatest race.

ParisLongchamp suits him perfectly, with a high cruising speed and his ability to conserve energy in the middle part of the race, as long as he gets a clear run, I do expect him to win, but given that he has been the ante-post favourite for this race for the majority of the last 12 months, I also wanted to see if I could find any further value in the market.

Maltese Cross is probably the most obvious danger. He has a course and distance win on his CV courtesy of his victory in the Grand Prix de Paris in July. That was a messy race and he really had to battle to get through the gaps in the closing stages of a bunched finish. In fact, there was just 0.1s between the first 4 to cross the line. I think he is likely to uphold that form with Varandir and Alam has already been ruled out of the race.

He backed up that victory in the Great Voltigeur at York, but that was real staying performance and a late speed figure that was just 0.49 mph faster than Christmas Day and Pierre Bonnard, both of whom have subsequently disappointed, would be a slight concern. I’d rate Daryz at least 10 lbs better than the horses that he beat in Paris in July and Maltese Cross has yet to show that he has the turn-of-foot that may be required to go with Daryz when they straighten for the judge.

For that reason, I thought there might be some value in PEARLED MAJESTY as an each-way bet. Mauricio Delcher Sanchez’s charge has already won the Group 3 Prix Noailles at ParisLongchamp earlier in the year and can be forgiven his only previous try in Group 1 company when he did too much too early behind the Ballydoyle pacemakers in the Prix du Jockey Club. He finished behind Varandir in the Prix Niel, but he traveled strongly into the race and would probably have finished better had he been amongst horses rather than on the outside of the field.

Christophe Soumillon accepted his fate when it became clear that he wasn’t going to get back on terms with the first 2 and his closing 400m was only 0.22s slower than the winner under a very relaxed ride. Visually, that looked like a very nice way to prepare for this on what was his first start for 70 days and whilst he has work to do to reach the level of form that Daryz and others have shown, but his form either side of the Prix du Jockey Club has been strong and of those at bigger prices, he looks the most likely to be suited by the race and its conditions.

His trainer’s comments after the Prix Niel that “he needs a faster pace” should come to fruition in this race and I expect him to be travelling strongly down the hill before being played as late as possible. He has shown himself to be amongst the best three-year-olds trained in France this year and if things fall right, he could be more than capable of at least running into the frame.

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.