Expert Analysis

Tom Collins zones in on the Classics with a review of the Derby and Oaks at Epsom before dipping into Saturday’s Belmont Stakes.

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Wet weather impacted Epsom’s Derby and Oaks meeting, and it is fair to state that absolutely nobody knew where the best ground was across the two days. 

On Friday, most races developed towards the stands’ side rail, as per the norm when sustained rain falls at the Surrey track. It appeared that the classic ‘golden highway’ was beginning to materialise and questions were being asked: How was that going to implicate the Classics? I had already begun to shortlist a number of horses who performed admirably despite being disadvantaged by where they raced.

However, that partially changed in the Oaks when a number of the key contenders launched their bids further towards the middle of the home straight. Rider Ronan Whelan (more about him later!) angled pacemaker and Aidan O’Brien’s third string, Sugar Island, down the middle which forced the leading players to follow to get a crucial tow deeper into the contest.

Only two fillies travelled with any kind of verve with three furlongs to run, and it was the patiently ridden Thundering On who produced the most impactful final challenge. Held up last behind fast early sectionals, the daughter of Frankel used her long stride (peaked at 25.49ft) to extend away in the closing stages under the brilliant Dylan Browne McMonagle to fend off Legacy Link with no hard-luck stories in behind.

Thundering On ran out an impressive Oaks winner

It may not have been the deepest of Oaks - a number of well-fancied rivals found little for pressure and came off the bridle early while official ratings indicated it wasn’t the best field - but the aforementioned top two finishers have infinite potential and should be seen plying their trade at the top level all year. A mile and a half was certainly no issue for either, especially Thundering On whose final furlong was posted in a fast 11.99s, and data firmly suggests that both are ground versatile.

There was a scattering of showers overnight from Friday into Saturday as everyone prepared for Derby day. Unfortunately, that was followed by heavy sustained rain throughout the card and the Derby ended up being run on notably soft ground. Again, there was a variety of opinions from the riders regarding the best possible route to glory.

Ten Bob Tony, who won the opening Group 3 Tattenham Corner Stakes, came to the stands' side. Sparks Fly went far side to win the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes. While Bay City Roller sluiced home in the mud to win the Group 1 Coronation Cup, a race in which Calandagan struggled with conditions while Jan Brueghel failed to show his usual tactical speed, up the middle of the track. Three contrasting opinions, but three victories.

Much like the Oaks, however, the decision regarding where they would race in the Derby was largely in the hands of Ballydoyle. After setting fast early fractions for the conditions (57.18 first 4f, which can be compared to 57.57 in the Oaks on quicker ground) and putting their customary emphasis on stamina in Classics, the chosen Ballydoyle pair to set the pace, Action and Christmas Day, opted to go far side-to-middle.

Action’s bid didn’t last long, but Christmas Day’s did. Whelan kicked for home with four furlongs to run and his mount continued to roll. Despite slowing final sectionals, Christmas Day was the only horse to really maintain his effort all the way to the line (fastest furlong in each of the last two furlongs) and he only briefly got challenged by one rival, Maltese Cross, who couldn’t sustain his bid in the same manner.

Track position has become the single most important factor in the Derby in recent seasons, and Christmas Day had a great position from start to finish. Where he raced on the track probably didn't matter.

Tempo looks Golden for the second time

Trainer Cherie DeVaux created history by becoming the first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby just over five weeks ago. On Saturday, she became the second female trainer to win the Belmont Stakes as her three-year-old superstar Golden Tempo secured his second victory in the 2026 Triple Crown with another last-to-first performance.

Many, including myself, believed he was potentially flattered by his success at Churchill Downs last month. It was an extremely messy Kentucky Derby, and the early breakneck gallop (22.68s 2f, 46.88s 4f) evidently set it up for a deep closer, of which he was the deepest. However, his Belmont Stakes victory proved that it was no fluke.

Golden Tempo once again adopted his closing style, but this time on a speed-favouring track behind much slower early fractions (23.96s 2f, 48.29s 4f). At the halfway point, it looked as though he would struggle to backrun the more fancied Renegade and Commandment, who were positioned a length in front of him.

However, Golden Tempo started to accelerate turning for home and, while it got messy on the inside rail, he was pulled to the outside to get into a brawl with Commandment. We saw at Churchill that the final furlong was his strongest - he kept going when others stopped - and it happened again on Saturday. A 12.91s furlong put away Commandment (13.08s) while the remainder trailed in their wake.

The Jim Dandy, run over a furlong shorter than the Belmont and Kentucky Derby, and the Travers look to be his next two targets as DeVaux adopts the same schedule that Sovereignty undertook last season. Versatility and a sound constitution will need to be proven next.

Englishman making a name for himself in the US

Plenty of stars have to be aligned for a track record to be broken, most notably weather, very fast track conditions, a strong pace, and at least one elite equine talent. There was a perfect syzygy at Saratoga on Saturday as Englishman beat an ultra tough field to win the Grade 1 Woody Stephens in a joint-course record time of 1:20.40s under Jose Ortiz.

He now technically shares top spot for the fastest ever performance over seven furlongs at ‘The Spa’ with Darby Creek Road, who was recorded as completing the same course and distance in the same time back in 1978. However, back in those days final times were only recorded to a fifth of a second rather than a hundredth and, given 1:20.40s would be right at the top end of 1:20 and 2/5ths, it is highly likely that Englishman actually ran quicker.

This unexposed son of Maxfield is as good as any three-year-old worldwide from a natural talent point of view. It won’t be long before he is the star on show rather than running in an undercard Grade 1.

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