Keeneland 08 April 2009
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LION'S CIRCLE has won his last two races, the latter at allowance level, and it is slightly concerning he is offered for sale quite cheaply. That said, his owners and trainer place their horses where they can win and accept they may lose them via the claim box. He can add to his great record on polytrack. Loconia has been taking on tough fields at The Fair Grounds. He drops in class to get his first win since 2007. Tap Dancing Mauk and Oliver's Cove both have form on this surface and will rightly have their supporters.
SNICKY improved greatly on her second start winning a maiden by three lengths at Turfway. She recorded a good speed figure that day and probably needs the same or better to beat winners here. Foxy Bailey was overmatched in a Grade 3 over a mile last time and her sprint efforts are some of the best lines of form in this field. She is the horse to fear. The class dropping Diamond Pendant has two wins on polytrack while Innovative and Trippi Dippedy Dot have undoubted ability but are unproven on this surface.
HE LOVES ME NOT ran well after a slow break at Gulfstream last time and switches to a surface he thrives on. He runs for a barn who have got off to a good start at this meet and is contender in a tough field. Lord Robyn beat lesser last time in Florida and won his only start here at a higher level in October. He will deservedly be well bet today. Ben and the Twin has claims on or near the speed while Papa ran one of his best races on this track.
CAJUN PRIZE was a poor maiden in 2008 but has looked a new horse since racing in blinkers, winning three of his last four races, two of which came on the turf. He has been beating claimers but could be up to the rise in class as this is a good but not a stellar group. South American import Rock in Bage (BRZ) ran well after a troubled trip at Gulfstream and Plenty Coups who gets back on the turf will take plenty of money but aren't that much superior to others in here. Moral Fiber and I Am Awesome are three time claiming winners who don't out of place in this field.
WHISTLEJACKET has worked well on this surface for his career debut and could be good enough to win at first asking. He goes for a very capable trainer and his last work really catches the eye. Flavor has been on the fringes at The Fair Grounds and is a contender if he takes to polytrack. Molten Lava and King Andrew have shown ability and are proven on a synthetic surfaces. They have a seasoning edge on most of this field. Versailles Road is another newcomer who has been working well.
NEW BELIEVER won his only start here and since then has posted some fine efforts in defeat on dirt and turf. The surface switch could be key and his barn has made a fast start to this meet. He should get fast fractions to close into. Fort Apache Star is probably not a win candidate but may have the right off he pace style to pass beaten horses and make up an exacta or trifecta. Speedy types Political Nonsense, Golden Weekend and Escrow are talented and if they can relax on the lead or even stalking have good claims.
MAGICAL AFFAIR looked a far better filly when winning first time on the turf at Gulfstream. She did have a fast pace to chase down that day but doesn't need to lay so far back. She has a leading chance in a race full of possibilities. As a juvenile the well bred Lady Shakespeare won on her debut then blew out in a Grade 3 next time She may show her full potential as a three year old. In a race with many evenly matched horses Pari has a good draw to save ground. Like many in here, she is still improving.
EVITA ARGENTINA is an accomplished seven furlong filly winning at least as good a Grade 2 than this at Santa Anita last time with a strong off the pace move. She is to a certain extent a hostage to pace but the fillies drawn outside Selva should ensure honest fractions up front. Selva is an accomplished filly winning four of her five career starts. She won short on the grass last time but did win her only start on polytrack and at this trip. She will be a tough to run down. Loveyou Everybody's is not that far off the top two in terms of form and has ran well fresh before.
MOSAIC had a troubled trip when well backed in a turf maiden at Santa Anita. Her form prior to that is on a par if not better than anyone else in here and she may be worth the gamble that she can will be as good on polytrack. With Flying Colors is another trying this surface for the first time and her form on turf and dirt makes her competitive here. She has wisely has been given a work here in preparation for this race. Cape Cod Bay is in form and several good runs on polytrack. Her biggest knock is too many near misses.
