Paul Quigley's US Racing Preview

Paul has selections with analysis for Saturday night's Stateside action from Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs - live on Sky Sports Racing.

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PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs
Saturday 19 January 2019


There is plenty of stakes action live on Sky Sports Racing on Saturday. Four of them come from Gulfstream Park in Florida. They are The Sunshine Millions, state bred series. Many of the runners have form in open or even graded stakes company. In The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf, likely favourite Starship Jubilee was a Grade 2 winner at Woodbine last autumn. She is a real Rags to Riches story being claimed for only $16,000 earlier in her career. She‘s also one three defending Sunshine Millions in action.

The remaining quartet of stakes on Saturday come from Aqueduct and Tampa Bay Downs. They are all competitive affairs, even the ones with smallish field sizes.


Tampa Bay Downs Race 3 (6.10pm)
The Wayward Lass – A stake for fillies and mares – 4 year olds and upwards – 1 1/16 Miles - Dirt

The former Puerto Rico trained Pure Lemon (2) is The X Factor here. The winner of 21 races including Grade 1’s is making her US debut. There is not a superstar among the locals and she could easily be good enough. She has been on the lead in many of her races but may have to stalk likely leader Tapa Tapa Tapa (6). She set the pace and was run down late in this race last year. The likelihood is she comes on from an encouraging comeback third in a Grade 3 at Gulfstream.

Todd Pletcher’s Shanghai Starlet (5) is a progressive newly turned four year old. She beat fellow Florida breds to win a stake at Gulfstream Park West in November. She will take money along with Figarella's Queen (1). The cut back to one turn was against her last time out in September. Her recent workouts suggest she may be back to her Grade 3 runner up of last summer.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Tapa Tapa Tapa (6)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
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Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Gulfstream Park Race 4 (6.15pm)
The Sunshine Millions Sprint – A stake for Florida breds – 4 year olds and upwards – 6 Furlongs - Dirt

X Y Jet (1) has won the last two running’s of this event. Both times, he’d had a recent start but this time, he has to overcome an absence since winning a Grade 3 in June. The seven year old has won fresh before and he’s been working well at Palm Meadows Training Center recently. The Grade 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen runner up is without question the horse to beat. The frontrunner is likely to have a pace partner in Ray'swarrior (6). He thrashed a field of claimers in a very fast time on his local debut. This is a big step up in class but his trainer Jason Servis is very capable of performing equine miracles.

X Y Jet had Reason to Soar (3) and Sweetontheladies (7) a well held second and third in that June event. Like the favourite, the runner up has not raced since. Sweetontheladies has a recency edge on them. His second start after a lay off was an improvement on his comeback. The chances are the late runner will finish behind the rail drawn runner for the fourth time out of four. If there is a costly speed duel up front, he could surprise at a big price.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Sweetontheladies (7)
EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 Bets) X Y Jet (1) and Sweetontheladies (7)

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Gulfstream Park Race 6 (7.15pm)
The Sunshine Millions Turf – A stake for Florida breds – 4 year olds and upwards – 1 1/16 Miles - Turf

This race is complicated by the fact that likely favourite Big Changes (3) has an alternative engagement at The Fair Grounds. If he turns up, this will be the eighth different racetrack on the bounce he has raced at. All venues seem to come alike to this win machine. He started off 2018 late in June and won five straight races including a trio of stakes. In his last two starts, he ran second in a Grade 3 at Churchill and couldn’t catch an all the way winner on an even pace at The Fair Grounds.

Class and Cash (6) is a danger from on or near the speed. He lost by a nose against fellow Florida breds in her last start in November. He may have a pace partners in Expected Ruler (5) and possibly Driven by Thunder (4). If the three of them go it from the get-go, Archer Road (1) could be a late threat. He finished almost three lengths behind Class and Cash in November but they walked on the front end that day. This event has a better potential set up for a late runner.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Big Changes (3)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Aqueduct Race 5 (7.26pm)
The Toboggan (Grade 3) – 4 year olds and upwards – 7 Furlongs - Dirt

Skyler's Scramjet (2) made a super return when a head runner up in a stake here over six furlongs last month. The step up to seven furlongs is unlikely to be a problem although Dylan Davis may have to go a tad faster than ideal if Colonel Sharp (3) is sent hard early on. What could be an issue is the dreaded bounce as this will be his second start back after a six month absence.

Gold for the King (1) who finished less than a length behind Skyler's Scramjet was a tad disappointing when taking on his fellow New York breds last Saturday. He contends off his best form but others in here are worth a look. Colonel Sharp (3) comes off a career best when winning a stake at Laurel last month. Bal Harbour (4) is cut back in distance after a fading third in a stake over nine furlongs. He won a stake over a one turn mile here the time before.

Despite his new trainer having a rare quiet spell, Solid Wager (5) may be the answer at a price here. The last time the former Californian based gelding ran over seven furlongs, he won a stake at Del Mar in November. He is taken to outfinish these.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Solid Wager (5)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Tampa Bay Downs Race 7 (8.10pm)
The Pasco – A stake for 3 year olds – 7 Furlongs - Dirt

This is a wide open event with only War Bridle (5) seemingly out of contention. Overdeliver (2) and Cave Run (7) were impressive debut winners for high profile connections. They have already run speed figures that make them competitive here and there is likely improvement to come.

Zenden (3) is unbeaten in two career starts. In the latest, he beat Jackson (1) by two lengths in a Gulfstream stake last month. He still looked green and runs as if he will be suited by the extra distance of this event. Win Win Win (4) is already proven over seven furlongs. He may have won a stake at Laurel last month but for breaking poorly.

Gladiator King (6) may go off a big price but is not out of this. The last time he ran in a sprint, he caused a minor upset in a local stake in December.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Zenden (3)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Tampa Bay Downs Race 9 (9.10pm)
The Gasparilla – A stake for 3 year old fillies – 7 Furlongs - Dirt

This is a wide open renewal with over half a dozen of the fillies having worthwhile form. It is complicated by a couple of these being unknowns on dirt. Both Another Time (7) and Into Trouble (9) have form on synthetics. The last named was a stakes winner over today’s distance at Arlington before trying a Grade 1 over a route at Keeneland. The worry with her is getting behind in a paceless looking affair.

Barn mates Gold Credit (5) and Into the South (2) are of interest. The first named won on debut over seven furlongs at Keeneland in October before fading in a Grade 2 route at Churchill next time. Into the South hasn’t run to her Saratoga maiden winning form in two subsequent starts.

Bella Ciao (4) has faced tough tasks since she broke her maiden. She made an encouraging return in a stake at Gulfstream last month. The last time Molto Bella (6) raced over one turn, she ran second in stake over a mile at Churchill.

Godolphin’s Twixt and Shout (3) broke her maiden over an extended mile but is not short of pace.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Gold Credit (5)
EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 Bets) Bella Ciao (4) and Gold Credit (5)

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Gulfstream Park Race 10 (9.15pm)
The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf – A stake for Florida bred fillies and mares – 4 year olds and upwards – 1 1/16 Miles - Turf

Starship Jubilee (13) had Surprise Wedding (7) back in fourth when winning this race in 2018. The former claimer has run even better since. At Woodbine last autumn, she won a Grade 2 by open lengths and was a close up fourth in The Grade 1 E. P. Taylor. This is a massive drop in class. Before you pile in, there are two issues. The extreme outside post is hardly an advantage. Just as importantly, she has had a run since excelling in Canada. Early last month, she seemed to face a simple task here in one of The Claiming Crown races. She set a slow tempo and was run down by a trio of runners. She has since worked really well.

The comebacking Madame Uno (12) won a similar stake to this at Tampa last March. She has not raced since running a bit below form behind Bitacora (11) in June. The mare that beat her has over three lengths to find with Starship Jubilee from this race last year.

The progressive Picara (2) beat Shanghai Starlet (10) and Warranty (4) to win a stake at Gulfstream Park West in November. The runner up did the form no harm by taking a stake at Ocala next time. Picara needs to improve again but as she is unexposed over two turns, that is entirely possible. She may be the best alternative to Starship Jubilee along with Mrs. Ramona G. (8). She is on a four timer after a hat-trick of allowance victories in New York and Florida.

Shanghai Starlet (9) won a stake on dirt last time but shaped well on turf before that.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Picara (2)
EXOTIC BETS
Combination Exacta (6 Bets) Picara (2), Mrs. Ramona G. (8) and Starship Jubilee (13)

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Gulfstream Park Race 11 (9.47pm)
The Sunshine Millions Classic – A stake for Florida breds – 4 year olds and upwards – 1 1/8 Miles - Dirt

Jay's Way (7) made all in this race last year and beat Mr. Jordan (4) by half a length. The runner up got his revenge in November but Jay's Way had been absent since March. He was used up on the speed on turf next time and is a player at a very decent price. Mr. Jordan stays this distance but in truth it is the upper end of his stamina limitations. He looked the winner of this race in 2018 until the frontrunner came back and nabbed him late on.

Morning line favourite Souper Tapit (8) is a tough read. He thrashed four rivals in an event that came off the turf last time. That run may flatter him but his other form give him claims. He’s a danger from stalk mode. So is Dalmore (1) although he may be sent hard from his inside draw. He improved off his comeback to run second in a stake at Laurel in November. He’s been working well lately and he gets the services of Irad Ortiz Jr.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Jay's Way (7)
EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 Bets) Mr. Jordan (4) and Jay's Way (7)

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Paul Quigley's US Racing Preview
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