Paul Quigley's US Racing Preview

Paul has selections with analysis for Thursday night's Stateside action from Gulfstream Park, Keeneland and Laurel Park - live on Sky Sports Racing.

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PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM Gulfstream Park, Keeneland and Laurel Park
Thursday 25 April 2019


Keeneland Race 7 (9.24pm)
Allowance (split conditions) – Fillies and Mares – 4 year olds and upwards – 1 Mile - Turf

Sensitive (4) came close to defying a 10 month absence at The Fair Grounds in late March. Brad Cox has not rushed her back to avoid the dreaded bounce. She now runs at Keeneland where her trainer is having a fine meet. Like most of this field, she has form in stakes events. She can’t afford to give too much of a start to the pacey Sassy Little Lila (3). She makes the biggest drop of all here having contested a series of Grade 2 and 3’s. She has been away since last summer but has worked well and her trainer has a fine record with lay off horses. The six year old gets a narrow vote.

Tooreen Dancer (2) has had only a handful of starts. She made it three career victories at Santa Anita in January. She is two for two at a mile. Over Thinking (8) seems to need further and this has a look of a sighter on her 2019 debut. Na Pali Spirit (1) has form over further but went close over today’s distance at Gulfstream in February.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Sassy Little Lila (3)
EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 Bets) Sassy Little Lila (3) and Sensitive (4)

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Laurel Park Race 8 (9.42pm)
Maiden Claiming $25,000 – 3 year olds and upwards – 5 ½ Furlongs - Turf

There is little tuff form nor early speed in this maiden claimer. That makes Kukulkan (3) interesting on his first start since January. He has two placed efforts in much better company last summer that if he reproduced them would likely crush this field. The problem is his trainer and jockey are winless so far this year. In the hope he’s a decent price, he gets a tepid vote.

There are quite a few in here unexposed on turf. Lucky Junior (10) has shown up early in higher priced maiden claimers over further and on dirt. He is bred for grass on his dam’s side. So too is the comebacking Shelly Island (11).

Gran City (7) and Devotion in Motion (8) both have been struggling in maiden special weights. The first named should be all the better for a comeback run last month. Devotion in Motion runs first time for sale, second time out.

Debutant Planned (4) won’t have to be any great shakes to win.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Kukulkan (3)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
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Gulfstream Park Race 8 (9.46pm)
Allowance Optional Claiming – 3 year olds and upwards – 1 1/8 Miles - Turf

This is a really strong race for the time of year at the track. Freedom Matters (2) is not certain to be suited by this nine furlong trip but is worth siding with all the same. The progressive four year old has tactical speed in a paceless affair. Jockey Edgard Zayas should have him on or close to soft fractions and have plenty left for deep stretch. His convincing victory over Florida breds last month suggests he can handle the class rise.

Bern' James Bern (4) came back to form running first time for trainer Saffie Joseph last month. He has tons of back class and has to be respected. So has old rival The Green Mo'ster (3) although he often finds one or two too good. Passport to Chaos (6) may be more of a danger. He runs as if the step up in distance will suit. His trainer Jason Servis has remains in fine form in Florida.

Cash Call Kitten (9) had been away over a year when a fading fourth at Turfway. Strike Midnight (11) is often a big price but the former claimer has the form to cause an upset.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Freedom Matters (2)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
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Keeneland Race 8 (9.57pm)
Maiden Special Weight – 2 year olds – 4 ½ Furlongs – Dirt

The market may have a lob-sided look to it with maybe only Steve Asmussen’s juvenile taking money against The Wes Ward pair. Merchants of Cool (1) makes a quick reappearance after a decent fourth over course and distance 15 days ago. His trainer does have strong numbers with second time starters and may be able to take advantage of his rail draw. Barn mate Letsstaypositive (9) still may be the one to go with. She is a filly taking on the boys here and is by first season sire Palace Malice who won The Belmont Stakes and The Met Mile. Her local workouts have been swift and she is likely to come out running.

Steve Asmussen’s Samurai Cause (3) has worked three times locally. The latest was a nice move over four furlongs from the gate. He is likely to have been extensively schooled before shipping to Kentucky and it will be no surprise if he is ready to rock and roll first time out. He gets the services of Florent Geroux. At a likely bigger price, Clear Destination (5) is worth a look. He represents low profile connections but did work a ‘bullet’ locally a week ago.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Letsstaypositive (9)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
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Laurel Park Race 9 (10.12pm)
Starter Optional Claiming – 3 year olds and upwards – 1 1/16 Miles - Dirt

Real Factor (5) came off a career best when runner up in a similar event early this month. He seemed to be flattered attending soft fractions but this race looks like it will be similarly run. The selection like a few in here is not big on winning but he did break his maiden only three starts ago.

Like Real Factor, the consistent Bandito (4) ran second at this level last time. He could give his luckless trainer a rare winner in 2019. By contrast, Claudio Gonzalez trains plenty of winners although he is having a quiet spell by his high standards. He runs Gulfstream invader The Robert (1) here. He’s been racing on the turf since breaking his maiden on dirt by a wide margin in February. His form is a little short of the best of these but could improve for the barn change.

Lucid Dream (2) won for fun running first time for Linda Rice less than a fortnight ago. He’s only lightly raced and another who could be capable of better.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Real Factor (5)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
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Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Gulfstream Park Race 9 (10.20pm)
Allowance Optional Claiming – 3 year olds and upwards – 6 ½ Furlongs - Dirt

Most of these need to bounce back after below par efforts or are coming back after extended lay offs. That includes Strike Power (9) who has been away since disappointing last summer. He was highly tried in two starts at Saratoga. He’s been working well for some time now. Just over a year ago, he won a Grade 3 and was placed in a Grade 2 over this Gulfstream trip. At his best, he’ll wire these.

Dial Operator (5) has won four of his five career starts for high percentage trainer Jason Servis. He’s been absent since August but his trainer has a brilliant record with long term returnees. He’s been working well. So has course specialist Three Rules (2). He is a local Grade 3 winner who doesn’t seem to stand much racing these days. Reason to Soar (3) beat him when last seen out in June. That five year old spun his wheels in the slop last time out. He is closely matched with the late running Sweetontheladies (1) off a couple of runs.

Be Gone Daddy (4) gets significant class relief after taking on Grade 2 company when on a hat-trick in March. Dupree (6) has disappointed lately but his trainer has to be respected whatever he sends out.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Strike Power (9)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Paul Quigley's US Racing Preview
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