Paul Quigley's US Racing Preview

Up to the start of last week, I was having a golden run with my Stateside wagers. As I back my opinion if the price is right with my selections in the preview, this column has produced plenty of nice-priced winners. Even during my good form, there were a few questionable decisions.

I did back a horse at 11/2 straight, plus 5/2 without the favourites early. When the horse drifted at post time, I should have gone back in at 12/1 and 5/1, respectively. I did, but only for token money. To paraphrase Dido, ‘that was then, and this is now’. I can’t seem to find a winner at a short or big price. Variance is part of gambling - the biggest lesson is you have to maximise your edge when you are right.

Let’s see what this Sunday brings, where I’ve looked at a quartet of races from Churchill Downs and Laurel Park. The class-plunging Sapphire Beach will rightly be a short price in race 7 at Churchill after she lost by just a neck in a productive Grade 3 at Keeneland last month. In the three races that precede that, I’ve tried to do a bit of price-hunting.

Remember, if any Stateside tracks or races are not covered by Sky Sports Racing, you can watch all of them on the ATR Player for free!

The Stateside Preview - Churchill Downs and Laurel Park for Sunday 31st May 2026

Churchill Downs 5 (7.46pm)

Starter Allowance – 3-year-olds and upwards – 1 Mile – Dirt

All but the lone three-year-old in this line up in Versed (6) can win in this race. Off a claiming win at Turfway in March, maybe even he has a chance. Baytown Bruiser (1) and Truly Legit (5) filled the places at this level over an extended mile here earlier this month. The winner is an improving type. Of the two, Truly Legit (5) who set the pace that day seems the more likely to be suited to cutting back in distance. He may be set for a peak effort on his third run back after a lay-off. His old rival Baytown Bruiser (1) has plenty of form over one turn so can’t be underestimated.

Trainer David Jacobson has hit form in recent weeks, and he is double-handed here. The lightly-raced ADMIRAL HALL (3) will likely take the more money. He’s improving and ran a good race first time for Jacobson 10 days ago. In a similar event over course and distance, he ran fourth. The trio that finished in front of him would all be short prices in this race. His new barn-mate Guardian (4) is exposed but has some upside. He was claimed off a 10-length romp against overmatched rivals earlier this month. The speed figure he ran suggests he can contend. He may be overlooked in the market somewhat with Summer Pauly taking the ride. Interestingly, Jacobson is two from three when using her. Both winners were prices.

You Ain't Poppn (2) was claimed away from Saffie Joseph after running third here only nine days ago. His new trainer has a really good really record with first time acquisitions. That form as it stands may not quite be good enough. His win at Gulfstream in December certainly is.

Selection: ADMIRAL HALL (3); If absent, Guardian (4)
No exotics

Laurel Park 7 (8.10pm)

Starter Allowance – 3-year-olds and upwards – 1⅛ Miles – Turf

The comebacking Bodecream (10) has some of the best lines of form in here. He beat Class Photo (3) and Italian Symphony (11) in back-to-back starter events in July and September. This is his first run since November. His trainer Jamie Ness has fine stats in almost every category. One exception is with longer term returnees. If he is fit, he’s the horse to beat.

Five of these ran in a race at today’s level over a mile here on 8 May. Class Photo (3) won by a head from his barn-mate The Last Scip (8). The winner was defying a lay-off. It will be interesting to see which way he goes second time back in 2026. He should be effective over nine furlongs. Likewise, runner up The Last Scip (8). He too was having his first start of the year. The late-runner did improve second time back in 2025. For the second race in a row Cut The Cord (1) blew the start when behind that pair. He has the back to contend if he starts better. He’s a bit of an unknown on turf.

A couple of runners ship in after victories out of state. Let's Dance Again (2) wired a field of claimers on the Tapeta at Gulfstream. He may be able to transfer his form to the grass bearing in mind his dam was a pure turfer. PUT A ROCK ON IT (4) is a far from certain runner but may be worth chancing if he turns up. He comes off a second and a victory in entry level allowance events at Lone Star Park. The competition there is often a little inferior to Maryland. He has run competitive speed figures and ran well in his one start over today distance.

Bookitwithhaddad (6) may be the better for his comeback in New York. He and Let's Dance Again (2) have speed in a race in which it may pay to be forwardly placed.

Selection: PUT A ROCK ON IT (4); If absent, Class Photo (3)
No exotics

Laurel Park 8 (8.42pm)

Allowance (split conditions) – Maryland-bred fillies and mares – 3-year-olds and upwards – 6 Furlongs – Turf

There are a couple of three-year-olds in here tackling their elders. Brief Affair (2) didn’t run a big speed figure on her debut earlier this month. She may have a lot of improvement in her. As things stand, fellow sophomore Clawless Brit (4) has better form. The speedster followed up a maiden win with a victory in an open entry level allowance event. She fits well class-wise now facing fellow Maryland breds for the first time. The one knock on her chances is the possibility of being softened up in a pace duel.

A trio of these ran in a similar race to this one at the start of the month. It was a swiftly run event. Big Earn (7) closed well to be second, with Lady Ensign (5) back in fourth. Big Earn (7) may get a good set up sat off fast early fractions. Lady Ensign (5) ran like she may have needed her first start of the year. Her form at the end of 2025 makes her a big threat.

PREPAREFORTAKEOFF (3) finished well behind Lady Ensign (5) and Big Earn (7) early last month. It was her first start since November. A fortnight later, she ran much better. She was beaten five lengths but that was a much tougher race than this one. Now she drops significantly in class. Her trainer and jockey are hardly prolific, but they have teamed up three times to win with her before. She may go well at a price.

Selection: PREPAREFORTAKEOFF (3)
No exotics

Churchill Downs 7 (8.51pm)

Allowance – 3-year-old fillies that have not won a graded stake on turf – 5½ Furlongs – Turf

SAPPHIRE BEACH (6) fits these race conditions to a tee. She has looked much improved in both starts cutting back in distance. On her three-year-old debut at Gulfstream in April, she was a clear-cut winner of an allowance event. After a non-staying effort over a mile, she was shortened to five and a half furlongs at Keeneland last month. The result was a neck second in a Grade 3. The first and third fought out another Grade 3 here next time. There is nothing of the quality she faced last time in this line up. She has speed but did stalk a hot pace when winning in Florida. That gives her jockey Jose Ortiz tactical options.

The selection will have to run big as some of her rivals have good form or potential. Should've (3) finished four lengths behind her at Keeneland. The graded stakes placed filly as a juvenile may improve off her comeback. That may also be the case with Snappy Comeback (4). She and Snow Face Princess (5) were no match for the pair who Sapphire Beach (6) split at Keeneland here next time.

Mony Mony (7) wired a stakes field over six furlongs on Tapeta at Woodbine last month. She may be able to transfer her form to turf. All her three career victories have come when she’s raced lasix. She can run with it here. She’s worth considering. So too is the twice-raced Beach Heist (1). She followed up a maiden win on debut with a close up third in a stake at Aqueduct. The pair that beat her both won next time. She gets Flavien Prat for her three-year-old debut. Her trainer Bill Walden has a super record with lay-off runners. She has plenty of upside.

Omaha Bay (2) has found the company too deep and the distance too far in a Grade 1 and 2 since winning a sprint on debut. She is a related to a turf runner so there is hope on the surface switch. She’s a wild card along with Secret Hideaway (8). She was highly tried in group races in Europe last summer. Brendan Walsh runs her in blinkers after an even effort at Gulfstream on her Stateside debut.

Selection: SAPPHIRE BEACH (6); If absent, Beach Heist (1)
No exotics