Derby picture gaining more clarity as trials conclude
The Derby is getting ever closer and following the running of the Dante Stakes at York on Thursday, the vast majority of the relevant form is now in the book. So, what better time than now to run through the evidence as it stands.
Aidan O’Brien has dominated the market for the race from when it opened last year and he still looks to hold a very strong hand in the race. Benvenuto Cellini created a very good impression when winning the Chester Vase last week. He had looked a very obvious Derby contender as a two-year-old bar one slight blip on unsuitably testing ground in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster.
A long, slow, fluent strider, everything about him was screaming out that middle distances on quick ground was what he wanted. He got those circumstances for the first time at Chester and he responded with a clear career-best effort. Stamina will be in no question for him at Epsom and he should relish the course and distance. He looks to be notably well balanced and really does look to be an excellent candidate for the Derby.
However, matters were somewhat complicated the very next day by the performance of Constitution River in the Dee Stakes at Chester. The son of Wootton Bassett had looked a high-class prospect when winning the Futurity Stakes at the Curragh before a slight hold-up saw him miss the Dewhurst Stakes.
Stepping up over three furlongs in trip for his seasonal return posed some strong questions to him, but Constitution River answered them with no doubt or hesitation. Covered up initially, when a gap opened for him on the home turn, he shot through it and powered away to win in fabulous style.
While much of the talk after that has centred on the Prix du Jockey Club for which he is undoubtedly an excellent candidate, my own view based on the evidence I have collected is that he would have a very good chance of being fully effective in the Derby if he took his chance.
Later in the week, Aidan O’Brien rolled out his other leading Derby hope with Pierre Bonnard looking to leave the form of a disappointing return in the Ballysax Stakes behind him in the Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown. He duly did take a significant step forward from his seasonal return having been well positioned in a steadily-run race, but he was run down in the final strides by the Joseph O’Brien-trained James J Braddock.
Aidan O’Brien is very much keeping the faith and is of the view that Pierre Bonnard will improve again in fitness terms and for the longer trip of the Derby. He might well be right, but there are just as many reasons to believe that James J Braddock can also improve having shown some residual signs of inexperience under initial pressure, not being nearly as well positioned as Pierre Bonnard when the sprint for home began and potentially being open to improvement for the longer trip.
In common with Constitution River, James J Braddock has the option of the Prix du Jockey Club before then, but there is only one Derby…
In terms of the home defence, what had looked a sparse British challenge for the race was significantly boosted at York on Thursday with Item maintaining his unbeaten record in the Dante Stakes in fine style. While he was facing some of the slightly lesser lights from Ballydoyle, the manner in which Item surged away from Action in the closing stages was very promising for one that was making their seasonal return and first start in stakes company off the back of what was reportedly an interrupted preparation.
While he wasn’t necessarily campaigned like a Derby horse in the making last season, his performance at York very much makes him a leading contender. His striding suggests that he will have a good chance of staying the longer trip in the Derby and barring minor fears of the “bounce factor” when a horse with an interrupted preparation is asked to back up again relatively quickly after a big effort on return, he looks to have strong credentials.
I will return to the Derby in the coming weeks as the field of potential runners is distilled and running plans become clearer, but now also seems like a good time to take a broader view of the Epsom Classic landscape.
No Galileo? No problem
There had been a train of seemingly logical thought that we were about to enter a new era of competitiveness at the top end of the middle-distance division. Coolmore and Ballydoyle had enjoyed an unprecedented run of dominance in the Epsom Classics thanks seemingly in large part to their control of the pick of the progeny of arguably the greatest sire of all time in Galileo. But, with that sire having passed on, the playing field would surely be much more level.
With brilliant middle-distance stallions such as Sea The Stars, Frankel, Dubawi, Lope De Vega, New Bay and Zarak all standing outside of Coolmore’s control, the days of their dominance would surely be over? That was the theory, but the reality has been different thus far.
It turns out that the Coolmore and Ballydoyle dominance of the middle-distance division might not have been all to do with Galileo. It turns out that they are just very good at breeding and selecting the right horses to hand over to the greatest trainer of all time in Aidan O’Brien and the results have been broadly similar.
At the time of writing, O’Brien is responsible for four of the top eight in the betting in both the Derby and the Oaks. The sires of those contenders are Frankel, Camelot, Wootton Bassett, Starspangledbanner and St Mark’s Basilica. No Galileo? No problem.
In truth, it is not surprising that Coolmore and Aidan O’Brien are still producing the goods with metronomic consistency at the highest level. The more pertinent question is where are all the offspring of top middle-distance stallions that have ended up with other trainers? Between just Dubawi, Frankel, Lope De Vega, New Bay and Sea The Stars they produced well over 600 live foals in 2023 and only 20 or so of them ended up in Ballydoyle.
That small group in Ballydoyle includes the current favourite of the Derby in Benvenuto Cellini as well as six others that retain entries in the Epsom Classics. Of the non-Ballydoyle entries for the Epsom Classics, 24 of them are by those non-Coolmore sires mentioned above.
No one would dare suggest that it is anything but exceptionally difficult to get a horse onto the Epsom Classic trail, but it is a valid question to ask why so many top trainers supplied with the progeny of top middle-distance stallions are not getting more of them into the Epsom mix.
