Ante-Post Focus

Published 07/04

LEAVE OF ABSENCE may have been excused National service but I’m still backing him to do the business at Aintree on Saturday - in the William Hill Handicap Chase.

Anthony Honeyball’s nine-year-old was one of two horses I put up at massive odds in February for the Randox Grand National following publication of weights, only to be withdrawn at a recent forfeit stage.

Despite keeping on determinedly to finish fifth over an extended three miles at the Cheltenham Festival last month, he’s being kept to that trip in the belief that the flatter track here will suit him better.

The trainer had alluded to the gelding’s topographical preferences in the wake of his agonising defeat in Ascot’s Silver Cup just before Christmas when Deep Cave sneaked up his inside in the dying strides.

The latter is set to renew rivalry on only a pound worse terms, so it promises to be a close match again, though Honeyball will fancy his chances of revenge now on spring terrain and a left-handed track.

Topweight asks a question of the selection but he’s a bold-jumping, prominent racer who bounces off good ground and remains open to improvement after just 12 runs under rules, eight of them over fences.

Still on his Ascot mark, he has a touch of class and can emulate stablemate Sam Brown, who landed this prize off a 2lb higher rating four years ago, while there’s a topweight precedent to draw encouragement from in the shape of 2019 winner Kildisart.

Published 06/04

An encouraging prep run on belated seasonal debut has laid the ground for another bold show from FAVOUR AND FORTUNE in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Aintree on Friday.

Alan King’s eight-year-old finished third in this race 12 months ago and is set to return to Liverpool off just a pound higher mark with his stable in fine form ahead of the remaining spring festivals.

That’s pertinent where the selection is concerned as he’s always been considered a better horse on decent ground as opposed to the winter mud - underfoot conditions should be ideal for him again here.

The gelding, lightly raced for his age with only 11 hurdle runs to his name, showed the ability remains when travelling strongly for a long way at Kempton in February - his first start for ten months.

He blew up big-style there, fading quickly in the straight after looking dangerous approaching the home turn, lack of a recent run and the extended trip of 2m5f finding him out on the day.

In all probability a second tilt at this race will have been firmly in King’s mind for some time and it’s worth noting the horse improved plenty for his reappearance last season, finishing fourth in Newbury’s premier handicap hurdle on his next outing despite the ground being softer than he prefers.

With the yard’s first-choice jockey Tom Bellamy already booked, everything looks in place for a big run again.

Published 30/03

It’s a two-pronged Irish approach for me in the Randox Topham Handicap Chase with contrasting underfoot conditions hopefully covered.

First up is ILE ATLANTIQUE, who seems well-suited by soft ground and has a touch of class, having finished third to stablemate Ballyburn over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival prior to winning a Grade 2 novice chase at Navan.

Willie Mullins’s eight-year-old has to bounce back from a disappointing effort at the Dublin Racing Festival where he started joint-second favourite under top-weight, so clearly more was expected of him on that handicap debut.

In fairness he was still in contention when a mistake two out put paid to his chances and, ratings-wise, he’s better judged on his previous Grade 3 second to Heart Wood, conceding 2lb to the winner who went on to resounding Festival success in the Ryanair Chase.

He may well have been put by for this, representing a yard that boasts three winners, a second and third from the last six renewals. Last year’s successful stablemate Gentleman De Mee is 3lb higher this time around and more exposed by comparison.

Heart Wood’s trainer Henry de Bromhead has a clutch of entries, the most interesting of which is COMING UP EASY, who despite his name probably wants a sounder surface.

He’s still unexposed over fences after just six tries and was unbeaten in three handicaps in this sphere prior to being pulled up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on soft ground at Cheltenham, for which he was 13-2 joint-third favourite.

Freshened up since then, it would be no surprise to see him get his career quickly back on track on spring ground.

Published 17/02

It’s a two-pronged each-way approach at huge prices for me following publication of weights for the Randox Grand National - starting with GORGEOUS TOM, representing 2021-winning trainer Henry de Bromhead.

The eight-year-old has yet to win over three miles-plus, hence his slipping under the radar for the Aintree marathon, but the stamina potential is there, both on pedigree and his plugging-on fourths in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham last March and the Coral Gold Cup eight months later.

In the latter event over 3m2f at Newbury, this close relative of 2013 Grand National runner-up Cappa Bleu did well to finish so close after being badly disadvantaged by the false starts fiasco - encouragingly, fellow chief sufferers Pic Roc and The Doyen Chief have both won since to give the form a boost (ditto race winner Panic Attack).

De Bromhead has kept the selection’s powder dry in the interim, the upshot of which is he gets to race off the same mark here for only his second handicap try (at time of writing) and open to further improvement after just eight chase starts featuring two wins, a second and three Grade 1 fourths.

The trainer has indicated “better ground” is ideal, but I wouldn’t give up hope in more testing conditions based on the gelding’s strong maiden hurdle form on soft/heavy, including behind subsequent Cheltenham Festival winners Slade Steel and Caldwell Potter.

LEAVE OF ABSENCE is an old pal of mine and - boasting a progressive record of five wins, three seconds and two thirds in 11 career starts - has to remain of interest off a mark that should sneak him in at the foot of the weights (would have got in all last ten renewals, including the most recent since reduced safety limit introduced).

He’s only a pound higher than when mugged on the line in the Silver Cup at Ascot where he edged left on the run-in and allowed winner Deep Cave up his inside, since when trainer Anthony Honeyball interestingly said in a Stable Tour on attheraces.com that he’s probably better suited by a flat, left-handed track.

Aintree, where he was an excellent third in the bumper at this meeting four years ago, fits the bill and it’s not difficult to imagine this sure-footed, front-running jumper taking to these fences and perhaps stretching his rivals back on better ground, granted normal spring weather (for instance, gets a 16lb pull with Haiti Couleurs on their Denman Chase running on heavy).