Ante-Post Focus

Published 3/6

RAYIF may make sufficient progress from his triumphantly delayed seasonal debut to bridge the ratings gap with market principals Bow Echo and Gstaad in the St James’s Palace Stakes, live on Sky Sports Racing.

Francis-Henri Graffard had warned in the early spring that he faced a race against time to get the colt ready for one of the mile Classics, so he’s quite possibly open to above-average improvement after landing the Poule d’Essai des Poulains without the benefit of a prep run.

The trainer warmed to that theme in the ParisLongchamp winners’ enclosure on May 10, saying: “I always prefer to prepare horses with races that gradually bring them towards the major targets. But this time I didn’t really have a choice, I was forced to skip the prep races. It wasn’t easy.”

Significantly, I think, both Graffard and owner Princess Zahra Aga Khan immediately pointed to this prize as the next target, the 37-day gap between races giving their ace plenty of time to recover and build up again.

It’s fair to say that Rayif had the run of the race from a plum inside draw that day, which made his task easier, but all things considered a big step forward is still on the cards and he’s much more lightly-raced than Gstaad, while Bow Echo doesn’t have his experience of racing round a right-handed bend.

The selection’s only blip to date was his short-priced third in last autumn’s Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, but there were mitigating circumstances in that he came from further back than the two who beat him, including Gstaad’s stablemate Puerto Rico, who had a big experience advantage at the time and could only finish fourth when reopposing at odds-on for the Poulains.

The last French-trained winners of this race were Sendawar (1999), also Aga Khan-owned, and Kingmambo (1993), both of whom came here straight after landing the Poulains - there’s enough in Rayif’s form and profile to believe he can follow suit or go close at least.

Published 28/05

BACK IN BLACK has had no luck with the draw on both starts this season and has a better chance than current odds imply in the Royal Hunt Cup, live on Sky Sports Racing.

James Fanshawe’s four-year-old was forced to race away from the favoured stands side on his reappearance in the Spring Cup, for which he was sent off 6-1 second favourite, behind only race-fit Shout in the market.

Given the circumstances at Newbury, where he had been so impressive 12 months earlier in the usually strong three-year-old handicap over seven furlongs, he shaped encouragingly to finish fourth, beaten little more than a length by perfectly-drawn Linwood, who holds a Group 3 entry in Ireland next month as well as in this.

On the face of it his subsequent third, dropped in grade at Lingfield and starting 5-4 favourite, counts as a regression, but stall one over the extended seven furlongs there is tricky to overcome under a hold-up ride on quick ground - even in a field of only eight runners - and unsurprisingly he failed to reel in a pair of prominent racers who grabbed the favoured nearside rail.

The grey didn’t kick on last year after that signpost victory in April, largely due to a setback that sidelined him for four months, but still showed enough to suggest he could yet live up to his trainer’s high expectations and, ratings-wise, his two best efforts have been over a mile (at Goodwood in the autumn and then in the Spring Cup).

A one-time Irish Guineas entry, it’s worth noting he drew this comment from the ever-realistic Fanshawe in an exclusive attheraces.com stable tour last September: “We thought (after Newbury and before injury intervened) we would have all the three-year-old handicaps at our mercy.”

Gelded over the winter, this strong traveller remains one to be interested in, particularly in big fields on a straight track - fingers crossed he makes the cut (three horses ran off his rating of 94 in last year’s renewal) and the draw is kinder to him at Royal Ascot.

With good or faster ground seemingly preferable for Back In Black, it may be worth giving ETERNAL FORCE (rated 2lb higher) another chance, as back-up should rain arrive in sufficient quantity.

William Haggas’s choicely-bred four-year-old (by Dubawi out of a Galileo mare) was my Lincoln Handicap selection based on the significant progress he made in the second half of last season following a gelding operation.

Despite the market speaking in his favour (he went off 4-1 second favourite behind La Botte, who’d had the benefit of a prep run), he appeared to finish a bit flat after being well enough placed in behind the leaders.

The trainer has since said his horses were a bit slow to come to hand in the early spring, so I’m inclined to put a line through the run and keep him onside for big handicaps, especially away from very quick ground (best efforts so far on good to soft, albeit converted a penalty kick on good to firm).

Published 22/05

The traditionalist in me is itching to take on a blinkered/hooded Classic favourite even though she’s trained by Aidan O’Brien and carried the unusual headgear combo to clear-cut success in her Betfred Oaks trial.

Amelia Earhart is a best-priced 2-1 at the time of writing, having seen off then-Epsom favourite I’m The One with relative ease in the Cheshire Oaks, the latter failing to handle the tight left-hand turns anywhere near as well as the winner.

The form is probably strong enough, given the pre and post-race hype that surrounded I’m The One’s debut romp at Newbury three weeks earlier, but the market is set up for an each-way play against the apparatus-wearing jolly and tight second-favourite Legacy Link, gutsy winner of the Musidora.

A LA PROCHAINE, a staying-on third at Chester, ran a race full of promise on only her second start (scored decisively in a backend Newbury maiden previously) considering she came from a disadvantaged track position the way things panned out.

Ralph Beckett had said beforehand she would come on for the run and experience, so he must have been pleased with how she shaped, conceding first run to the pair who beat her after missing the break and allowed time to find her rhythm at the back of the field.

Caught further back than ideal as the winner kicked for home off the steady pace set by her stablemate Sugar Island, she kept on nicely towards the far rail away from where the main action unfolded.

Beckett has left three in the Betfred Oaks following the latest forfeit stage, describing A La Prochaine as a likely runner with K Sarra pointing more towards the Ribblesdale. His other candidate On Message, a Class 4 handicap winner over a mile at Epsom last month, is a 100-1 shot.

The selection is bred for the trip (half-sister to a German Derby/Grosser Preis von Baden runner-up) and in the right hands to take the necessary step forward from Chester, the trainer’s excellent record with fillies in particular including victories in this race with Look Here and Talent.

Published 19/05

SAXON STREET appeals as a bit of value for the Betfred Derby ahead of his next scheduled outing at Goodwood on Saturday.

Victory in the Cocked Hat Stakes - for which he’s an odds-on shot at the time of writing - would maintain his unbeaten record and complete a relatively low-key preparation.

Sidestepping the more traditional trials leaves a question mark as to whether he’s got the requisite class or high-level experience at this stage of his career, but it’s worth remembering that John Gosden sent out Cracksman to finish a close third nine years ago after winning the Derby Trial at Epsom in April.

Withdrawn from the Dante supposedly due to soft ground - conditions in which he gained three of his subsequent four Group 1 wins - that colt went back to Epsom in June with just two career runs behind him, having previously landed a backend juvenile maiden at Newmarket.

Saxon Street made an even later debut - at Chelmsford a week before Christmas - justifying prohibitive odds in quite taking fashion considering he had to pass the whole field after a slow start put him immediately on the back foot.

That form is nothing special as things stand - accepting the next three home have yet to reappear - but it was promising nonetheless and he built on that when following the Cracksman route at Epsom three weeks ago.

Again, it’s the manner of victory that brings encouragement rather than the bare form - for instance, the third home Balzac was beaten just under four lengths on the day, whereas he was almost twice as far behind Maltese Cross in the Lingfield Derby Trial next time.

In mitigation Saxon Street didn’t need to be ridden out with anything like the force applied to Maltese Cross in his ding-dong battle with Bay Of Brilliance - after changing his legs several times, he found his stride over two furlongs out and quickly put the race to bed despite hanging left through greenness.

The Dante had been under consideration for his final prep run, but the Gosdens have waited another week for Goodwood where he will gain further match-practice on an undulating, turning track, albeit going the other way round.

Should all go well there he would arrive at Epsom as a thrice-raced unbeaten colt from a top yard, likely ridden by an elite jockey (William Buick was in the plate last time and Godolphin don’t appear to have a serious contender, ditto James Doyle with Wathnan). In those circumstances, and with plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of the pedigree, his current odds might look big on the day.