Updated 9.25, 9:43 - all selections online
NOBLE LINEAGE did really well to win at Wolverhampton last time and he looks worth the chance to confirm that favourable impression in the 1m2f handicap at Sandown (5.05).
He had shaped well when winning over the extended 1m trip on his previous start, which was also at Wolverhampton, but he was still sent off second favourite last time in the face of a huge gamble on Ballylemon.
Ballylemon kicked for home whilst Noble Lineage was stuck behind horses, and he did remarkably well to run the favourite down.
A 6lb rise doesn’t seem at all harsh in the circumstances, and although he switches back to turf, with Ryan Moore booked Noble Lineage looks a strong contender here.
MORAAWED has been relatively weak in the betting this morning, perhaps a reflection of the fact that he’s making his turf debut at Doncaster today (3.25), but in my eyes he’s potentially one of the best-handicapped horses around and if he can transfer his all-weather form to grass he’s going to be very hard to beat off his opening mark of 80.
He shaped better than the bare result on his first two starts, poorly positioned off a steady pace on each occasion. He was selected in this column at Kempton last time, but although he was beaten, he did nothing to change the overall very positive impression he has created.
Slightly squeezed out at the start, he was held up at the back of the field, but threaded his way through and made up a lot of ground to finish second. The overall time and sectionals, especially from the first two home, compared very favourably with those of the 82-rated winner of the handicap that followed over the same course and distance, and I’m fairly confident that Moraawed is capable of proving much better than that mark of 80 suggests.
Of course, similar comments apply to plenty of his rivals in this competitive-looking 3yo handicap, and he does have to prove that he isn’t just an all-weather horse, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he progressed into being better than a handicapper at some stage so with his stable going well he looks worth backing today.
Hugh's Best Bets (scale 1-5 points):
2pts win NOBLE LINEAGE (4-1 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes, 15-4 Betfair Sportsbook, 7-2 Paddy Power, William Hill)
2pts win MORAAWED (4-1 BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes, 7-2 bet365, Betfred, William Hill)
Hugh gives a daily indication of when the column will be published via Twitter.com (username is HughRacing). You can also listen to a Final Furlong Podcast special in which Hugh explains the methodology behind the column here.
Hugh recorded a profit of +345pts in 2018, and a ROI of 1.55, his highest ever. With regards to Betfair SP, Hugh recorded a profit of +66pts (ROI of 1.11) before commission. You can view his monthly figures by clicking the links below:
2018 results ROI 1.55 +345pts
2017 results ROI 1.46 +282pts
2016 results ROI 1.44 +281pts
2015 results ROI 1.34 +207pts
2014 results ROI 1.32 +199.79pts
2013 results ROI 1.32 +210pts
2012 results ROI 1.31 +222.65pts
2011 results ROI 1.28 +302.64 pts
2010 results ROI 1.23 +324.79 pts
2009 results ROI 1.26 +500.36 pts