Total Performance Data tips

Published 10.26  31/03

Winning form is in very short supply in this field (3:50 Bangor). Kahavari is yet to win in 11 starts, but he did run well when narrowly beaten at Carlisle last time behind Benmore. His final furlong split of 14.71s was just 0.01s slower than the winner and up just 1lb in the weights, he should go close once again.

Busty Boy has won a race, but that was back in October 2023 and although he was the most fluent jumper in the closing stages on his latest start at Doncaster, losing an average of 12.2% of his speed over his fences, he was left behind in a steadily run race and doesn’t look to be particularly well handicapped at present.

Very few of these runners have any secrets at this stage, so I want to take a chance on NATIVEHILL on his first start for Fergal O’Brien.

We haven’t seen him since he pulled up in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival in 2025, but he was a comfortable winner of a Huntingdon maiden hurdle going into that race, where he recorded a race best top speed figure of 32.57mph as he ran the fastest final 3f splits in the field.

We have a full data set from his debut run over hurdles at Newbury in December 2024 where he recorded the longest average stride length in the field, so we can be fairly sure that he has the size and scope to be a chaser. He won a point-to-point as a five-year-old under Derek O’Connor and given the time that he has missed, the fact his connections are embarking on a chasing career at this late stage of the season would suggest they have got him right after an absence and want to press on.

The market may offer some clues, but a mark of 114 looks very fair and he may well prove to be a class above if ready to run.

The horses who have been running on the All-Weather recently didn’t make too much appeal so I think that this race (7:30 Wolverhampton) is much more likely to go one of the runners with Nursery form from last season.

Concert is making her first start for Jack Channon. She finished 6th at Southwell in October and found the straight course there was too much of a test to get herself on terms. She is closely matched with Kolkata Night from their meeting at Haydock in September and although she finished 3rd, she did at least record a better run-out speed. She is likely to need this on her first start since leaving William Haggas and I suspect that she may prove to be a better filly over 6 furlongs, but she is a horse to watch, especially if she finishes her race well. 

Kolkata Knight has his own claims and showed a very brave attitude to win that race at Haydock when he was last seen 186 days ago. He made all the running that day and the 10.99s that he recorded for the 3rd furlong was the fastest split in the field. He has the speed for this test, but with Tom Dascombe having a quiet start to the season, I thought he was likely to set this race up rather than win under top weight. He will certainly have competition for the lead, probably from Simplify.

She made all the running with the stand's side rail at Thirsk last time. Having taken 7.2s to reach 30mph, she was the fastest horse into stride when the stalls opened and clocked impressive figures of 41.54mph (top speed) and 36.46mph (run-out speed) as she led home a field that contained six subsequent winners.

A mark of 80 is not a gift, but it’s very fair, although her carriage did suggest that she may have been better at Thirsk because she had the rail to help. She is yet to go around a tight bend and so on her All-Weather debut, I have decided to overlook her, but she should be the pace angle for my selection to track.

DARK ANGEL STAR finished 2nd when she was last seen in a Chelmsford Nursery in October.

That form has worked out very well as she was beaten by Elara May, a filly now rated 88 who finished 4th in a Listed race on her next start at Newmarket. Dark Angel Star tracked the pace and was short of room on the inside at a crucial point in the straight. She wouldn’t have won, but she finished her race well behind the winner and recorded the best run-out speed in the field.

She won a Newcastle Novice race the time before, so we can be sure that she will handle the tapeta and she should get a brilliant pace to track. James Tate has had one winner and three places from eight runners in the last fortnight, so we can be fairly confident his horses are in-form and having been a clear 2nd at Chelmsford, she still looks fairly treated.

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.