Total Performance Data tips

Published 15.10 - 06/05

Jan Brueghel ran a faster final furlong (12.10s) than Calandagan when beating him in the Coronation Cup last year, and if he turns up for the Ladbrokes Ormonde Stakes (3:05) in that kind of form, it seems highly likely that he will win. However, we haven’t seen him for 285 days, and the form of his win at Epsom was readily reversed at Ascot in July. As a result, he is simply too risky to back on his first run of the year. Illinois recorded a time of 26.09s for the final quarter of a mile when winning this race 12 months ago, which was the fastest closing time in the field, with Al Qareem finishing behind him in second after recording a faster run-out speed than the winner at 33.1mph. The pair are closely matched, with the latter running out a solid winner on his seasonal return in the Goliath Cup at Musselburgh last month - a race where he ran a final-furlong time of 13.33s, which was a quarter of a second faster than anything else in the field. We know a lot about these stayers, and there certainly isn’t that much between them, especially if we add in some doubts about Jan Brueghel on his first run of the year.

However, RAHIEBB (3:05 Chester) represents a new form line, and there are reasons to think that his closing runner-up finish last time would give him a great chance at this level. The four-year-old was over half a second quicker than the winner Scandinavia over the final quarter of a mile in the St Leger at Doncaster, where he made ground up alongside the far rail. He recorded the best run-out speed in the field that day, and that form with the current Gold Cup favourite, with whom he is very closely matched, is enough to suggest he can compete in this Group 3 contest. Roger Varian has a 19% strike rate in pattern races at Chester, and whilst I do accept the fact that Rahiebb has just the one win to his name thus far, he did run to a high level as a three-year-old and so may be able to improve past his older rivals here.

James Owen has a record of four wins and nine places from his 12 attempts to complete a hat-trick with one of his runners in a handicap on turf. There’s already been quite a lot of improvement from MOMENT OF LIGHT this season, but I think he should be able to translate his form from the All-Weather back to the turf in the Chester Handicap (4:45). Given the son of Sea The Moon has recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field in each of his last two starts, there’s every chance that he will improve once again for stepping up to 12f for the first time here.

Moment Of Light finished second to Laazm on his debut at this track in August, a race where he ran the fastest final furlong in 11.57s. Although he failed to win any of his three starts on turf last season, he certainly wasn’t disgraced, with his sixth-place finish behind Maltese Cross at Newmarket in September proving to be one of the strongest two-year-old novices in 2025. He’s won both starts on the All-Weather at Kempton since, despite not being ideally suited by the steady pace of those middle-distance handicaps, with finishing speeds of 105% and 111% registered for those two victories. This 12f trip from a good draw in stall 3 should really suit, while a subsequent 4lb rise from the handicapper shouldn’t be enough to stop him from at least going close.

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.