Published 8:42 - all selections online
In the 5f nursery at Yarmouth (6:40), Dubai Charm did really well to win over this course and distance last month, clocking three consecutive furlongs under 11s in the middle of the race as she stayed on best to win by over a length. Although she was previously soundly beaten in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, her connections felt she was good enough to contest that race, and she certainly proved better than her opening mark of 75. However, at a peak of 24.54ft, she had one of the shorter strides in the field last time out, and the combination of a 7lb rise from the handicapper and having to concede weight all-round was enough to put me off her here.
DOWMAN (6:40 Yarmouth) receives 9lb from Dubai Charm, and the son of Sioux Nation was a comfortable winner over the minimum trip at Windsor when last seen at the beginning of June. That form hasn’t really worked out, but he recorded a top speed of 42mph that day and was comfortably on top at the line. His stride also reached a peak average of 25.35ft, and I think the straight course at Yarmouth should play more to his strengths. George Boughey has a 38% strike rate in Yarmouth nurseries, and although the two-month absence is a slight concern, with weight in his favour I would expect Dowman to prove to be the best-handicapped horse in this field.
The 7f three-year-old handicap at Kempton (8:20) looks to be relatively open, but the horse I’m going to take a chance on is the lightly-raced QUADRILLION (8:20 Kempton). A daughter of Kingman, her dam (Quadrilateral) won the Fillies’ Mile for Roger Charlton, and so it would be fair to say that the Juddmonte team may have been hoping for something better than a handicap mark of 75 from this filly. However, after a pair of positive runs as a two-year-old at Newmarket and Leicester, in races that have produced plenty of subsequent winners, I thought she showed more than her sixth-place finish might suggest on her seasonal return at Yarmouth in June.
Settled in mid-division that day, she made her challenge towards the stands side and clocked a race-best top-speed figure of 39.67mph as she closed. She couldn’t quite sustain that closing effort behind Shushu, who made all of the running to win under Jack Mitchell, but her closing three furlongs ranked third, fourth and then seventh, which suggests she was in need of her first run for over 300 days. At an average of 22.7ft, her stride length was over a foot shorter than an average winner over that course and distance at Yarmouth from our database, but going around a bend at Kempton should prove more suitable. Her connections have been patient by giving her another 56 days to recover from that run, but they are persisting, and retained rider Colin Keane now comes in for the ride for her handicap debut. There should be a fair pace to track here, and if she strips fitter for her first run of 2026, she should prove to be better than her opening mark, with any market support an obvious plus.
BEST BETS
6.40 YARMOUTH
DOWMAN (15-8 & 7-4 general)
8.20 KEMPTON
QUADRILLION (4-1 general)
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.
