Published 8.50 - all selections online
The 1m 2f handicap (4.30) at Yarmouth looks likely to be dominated by the three-year-olds, but Lordsbridge Blu appears to be the more likely of the older horses after staying on strongly up the hill at Sandown with the fastest final furlong and run-out speed. That was a solid effort, but he has been a beaten favourite in his last two starts and his best form has definitely come on the All-Weather.
Akrramm is the least exposed of the three-year-olds, and given that his dam is an unraced half-sister to a US Grade 1 winner in Sweet Dream, there is every chance he will prove to be better than a mark of 71, which is further supplemented with his jockey’s 7lb claim. He was third at Chelmsford on his latest start, where he ran the best final furlong in a race where the two horses that finished ahead of him were able to dominate from the front. Although no match for them, he was six lengths clear of the rest and should improve for a more galloping track. He is short on experience, however, and that was enough to put me off, especially with further rain forecast, which will likely turn the ground soft, though the data suggests he will be more than capable of winning races at this level.
The latter should at least be competitive along with Clermont Ferrand, who was outpaced before staying on with the rail to help at Newmarket last month. She hung her head to the right hand side throughout the race and her top speed ranked only fifth of six, so while she was clearly an unlucky loser, it may not be so easy to make up ground under these conditions if she is outpaced in the straight.
As a result, NEPAL (4.30 - each-way) appeals most. The three-year-old was a course-and-distance winner on his first start for George Scott when winning a maiden here in early August, getting the better of Forever Penywern who followed up in a Goodwood seller next time out. That pair were 10 lengths clear of the third and Nepal registered the fastest final furlong (11.94s) and run-out speed (34.85 mph) as he asserted in the closing stages. Callum Shepherd reported that he hung under pressure at Sandown and given the way the field drifted across the track that day, I am happy to forgive that sixth-place finish. He also has experience of softer conditions from his time in Ireland, so the return to a flat track like Yarmouth will surely help. After only seven starts he is relatively lightly raced, and without the Sandown run - where he didn’t look comfortable at any stage - he would appear to be one of the most progressive types in the field. He traveled so well here last month that he is worth forgiving in a race where the run-out speed data suggests that a lot of these runners will need a strong pace to aim at, which is far from guaranteed with only Life Is Rosie appearing likely to want to lead.
The card at Yarmouth concludes with a 5f handicap (5.30). Moulin Booj and Raneenn ran in the same race at Lingfield last time, where neither were a match for the easy winner Glamorous Breeze. The latter looks the more likely of the pair here, but she was slowly away when leaving the stalls from a good draw - ranking fifth and eighth for the opening couple of furlongs - and only really kept on in the closing stages, albeit on the slowest part of the track. She is a better turf horse, but she hasn’t won since April and has struggled on her two previous efforts at this distance.
Thunder Star has won twice here in the past and has form on softer ground. Her record after a break of more than 60 days reads 01372, so there is reason to be optimistic that she will be ready to go having been off since June. The form of her latest start over course and distance has worked out well, where she and the winner pulled a long way clear when recording the best final furlong and run-out speed in the field. The pace was my only concern, as three of her four wins in handicap company have come in races where the finishing speed was below 100%, and with perhaps only Gold Star Hero or possibly Loving Apprentice to take them along, she may find herself running on in the closing stages, especially if she does need her first outing of the autumn.
Dropping back to 5f will surely mean Gold Star Hero goes forwards, having ran the fastest final two furlongs on his latest start over 6f at Windsor. This looks like an interesting move, but his only win came in a Chelmsford novice in 2024, though a year ago he was deemed good enough to run in the Listed Rosebery Stakes at Ayr (finished 7th). Having not won since, I think he is more likely to set the race up for a closer, and the horse that appeals is LOVING APPRENTICE (5.30 - each-way).
The three-year-old bounced out and grabbed the stands rail to win over 6f at Lingfield in July, and despite being favoured by her track position, she recorded the best top speed, run-out speed and final furlong when asserting to win by five lengths. Drawn wide in stall 12 in the Racing League at Wolverhampton next time, she had little chance, and having been dropped into midfield she was never likely to land a blow. Back on turf and down to 5f, this looks to be an interesting move for a filly that has two winning siblings over the minimum trip.
TPD's ADAM MILLS'S BEST BETS
4.30 YARMOUTH
NEPAL each-way (5-1 Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, 9-2 general)
5.30 YARMOUTH
LOVING APPRENTICE each-way (7-1 general)
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.