Total Performance Data tips

Published 16:55 15/06- all selections online

Day two

I would have preferred to see SENORITA BONITA running over 6 furlongs, but I was so impressed with the manner of her Nottingham victory that I think she is worth backing, even at this trip in the Queen Mary Stakes (2:30). 

I wrote a review of the Nottingham race for TPD and my initial thoughts were that she found a way to win despite everything going wrong on the day. Drawn towards the far side of the course in stall 3, she was one of the slowest horses into stride, taking 5.6s to reach 30 mph and recording a time of 14.92s for the opening furlong (ranked 7th of 10). 

Oisin Murphy rode her that day and had to try and settle her, eventually moving in behind the early pace setters in search of cover. With 2 furlongs to run, she was still 6th and with the two horses directly in front of her rolling around, she seemed likely to be an unlucky loser as she struggled to find racing room. However, once switched around runners, she picked up readily inside the final furlong, closing a gap of 0.38s on the runner-up (Fast Track) who had the benefit of previous experience and an untroubled passage through the race on her side. 

Both her late speed and run-out speed figures were the fastest in the race and the latter was more than 7% faster than the runner-up. The pair were over 3 lengths clear of the rest when crossing the line and they ran the fastest 2-year-old times of the year so far at Nottingham. 

She should (hopefully) have learned a lot from that debut run and whilst this may not be an easy watch if she is slow to leave the stalls but the way she finished at Nottingham would suggest she had plenty left and so the stiff finish at Ascot should suit. 

I think that the key piece of form for the Kensington Palace Stakes (5:35) comes from the Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% British EBF Fillies' Handicap run over this course and distance at the start of May. The winning time of 1:40.07 was 0.71 faster than the TPD Expected time figure for the course and distance in those conditions and the pair to concentrate on are the winner Radiant Beauty and the third-placed ALOBAYYAH. 

Radiant Beauty made all under James Doyle, which was her 3rd win in 5 starts since she joined James Owen last year. She sets a fair standard and having run a good time, the fact that she made all and still won by over 2 lengths would suggest that a 6lb rise in the weights is very fair. Ryan Moore is booked and she is clearly going to be well found in the market. I’d also expected the lightly raced Alobayyah to be well supported in the market, but I think there is a decent case for the form being reversed. 

Radiant Beauty had the benefit of race fitness on her side having made her return at Kempton towards the end of March, whereas Alobayyah was having her first start for over 200 days. With only 4 starts in 2 years, she has clearly not been the easiest to train, but having been last at halfway, I thought she made superb progress to finish a never-nearer 3rd after switching towards the stands’ side rail. 

Alobayyah was the fastest horse on the clock for each of the last 4 furlongs and covered the final half-a-mile in a time that was a second quicker than Radiant Beauty. Her late speed figure of 37.9 mph was a race best figure and ranks in the top 10 late speed figures recorded over the mile at Ascot in the last 3 seasons. She’s been raised just 1 lb by the handicapper and so gets a 5 lb swing, as well as the benefit of the run to help her reverse the form with Radiant Beauty. 

Her dam was a Group 3 winner over a mile for Clive Cox and if she can be kept sound, there is every reason to think that Alobayyah could be the proverbial “Group horse in a handicap”. 

Day three

It’s a slightly unoriginal selection to start day 3, but I was very impressed by the performance of AIX LA CHAPELLE on his debut at the Curragh 2 weeks ago that it was very hard to see past him in this year’s Chesham Stakes (2.30). 

Aidan O’Brien has won this race seven times and this son of Justify really looks like he fits the right profile. He finished ahead of Bull Shark on his debut earlier this month and whilst that horse didn’t do a great deal for this form when down the field in the Coventry Stakes, I think he did far too much in front on the far side of the field and so I would rather judge Aix La Chapelle on what he achieved than the collateral form. He was helped by having a target to aim at, but he readily picked up in the closing stages at the Curragh, running the fastest final 2 furlongs in the field and gaining over a half a second on the runner-up in the final 2 furlongs. His stride length peaked above 8m on that occasion and he shaped like a horse who will be perfectly suited to the Ascot hill. 

I couldn’t find too many runners in this field that matched our recorded race averages for a winner of this race and so if he repeats the promise of his debut run, I would expect it will be enough for Aix La Chapelle to give his trainer an 8th success in this race. 

The Britannia is a very competitive handicap (4.50) and I’m having to write this in advance and hope that I am on the right side of the draw, but I was at Sandown on the day that LAUREATE CROWN won last time and was suitably impressed by his data to think that he could win again. 

Jamie Spencer rides at a 30% strike rate for Hugo Palmer in handicaps and so the switch from Oisin Murphy doesn’t cause any concern. Laureate Crown made up ground from the rear at Sandown on a day when it suited horses that were closer to the pace. He ran the fastest split for both the final furlongs, despite looking to be slightly awkward on the outside of the field, recording a race best late speed figure of 36.6 mph. 

He has now won both starts this season and looks to have found plenty of improvement as a three-year-old. A winner here on debut last July in a race that contained 9 subsequent winners down the field, he looks perfectly suited to Ascot and should get a good pace to track from stall 16. Having run faster closing sectionals than Organise at Sandown, the difference in price between the pair seemed too big to ignore.
 

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.