What should punters and racing enthusiasts do when time is short or playing catch-up is required? “Specialise” is one very acceptable answer, and that is what I propose to do as I ease myself back into the fray after a spell on the sidelines.
This column will therefore focus on the two-year-old action in Britain and Ireland, and sometimes further afield, on the run-up to Royal Ascot in the middle of June. Truth be told, this is pretty much my favourite category and time of year in any case.
Some people swerve early two-year-old racing, citing the shortage of racecourse evidence as a barrier to engagement. But putting in the groundwork in this area can be worth it for that very reason.
The less we know about a horse’s form, the greater the reliance there should be on wider statistical and analytical measures.
Whether it be race standardisation (drawing on the expected strength of a race given its history), pedigree ratings, trainer adjustments, time and sectional comparisons, or something else, crunching the numbers can pay off.
Not many big shots have been fired, especially in Britain. Charlie Appleby usually has a smattering of promising juvenile talent in the top 10 by now but, remarkably, has not had a single two-year-old runner at the time of writing.
Similarly, Aidan O’Brien in Ireland has not been as active as he sometimes has been. Charles Darwin and future Guineas heroine True Love had already won and looked a sure-fire future winner respectively by this time last year.
If there is a youngster from the stable to fit that mould this year it looks to be GREAT BARRIER REEF, who leads the way on my ratings and heads the market for the Coventry Stakes.
The son of No Nay Never landed the odds by six lengths at the Curragh on his only start, though that was on soft to heavy ground and in an unremarkable overall time. The runner-up, Ischgl, finished quite a close fourth back at the course on Monday without particularly boosting the form.
Great Barrier Reef’s late sectionals were more persuasive than his overall time. His final furlong of 12.88s was the fastest of any horse, old or young, on the card, and he was the only one of eight winners that afternoon to break 13.0s at that stage.
Joseph O’Brien introduced a promising one earlier on the card in the shape of STAR PROSPECT, who accounted for an Aidan youngster in Carry The Flag and the Robson de Aguiar-trained filly What A Girl Wants in quite good style but again in a slightly underwhelming overall time.
What A Girl Wants went onto finish second to VELOZEE in a listed race at the Curragh on Monday, beaten three and a half lengths, with even a conservative view of the winner’s form suggesting she is probably useful. Once more, the overall time was unexceptional, though conditions seemed slightly easier than later on the card.
Velozee managed three successive sub 11.0s splits in that win, following a slowish opening stanza, and clearly possesses plenty of speed. She narrowly leads the way in the betting for the Queen Mary Stakes.
Robson de Aguiar has been making quite a splash with his juveniles in Ireland this year – mostly, but not exclusively, for AMO Racing – and has a couple of promising types in FORCE NOIR and EDWARD THATCH.
Force Noir’s win at Naas came on quick ground and in an overall time that compares very well with that put up by the smart three-year-old Mission Central in the listed race which followed. He banged in a 10.44s split mid-race and heads my shortlist for the Norfolk Stakes (worth backing at double-figure odds for that) at this juncture.
Edward Thatch’s win came by an even wider margin and in quite a fast time considering the testing conditions at Cork on Sunday.
The two most important juvenile races in Britain at this early stage look to have been the Royal Ascot 2-Y-O Trial at Ascot won by ADAAY OF SCARLETT and the Lily Agnes Stakes at Chester won by ADONIUS. It is worth considering them in a bit more detail.
Adaay of Scarlett had comfortably the best form at Ascot, courtesy of his defeat of next-time winner Innichen in a slowly-run race at Newmarket, but was just workmanlike in accounting for his two rivals, probably because they stepped up slightly on their 1-2 in the Brocklesby at Doncaster rather than that he stepped down.
Nonetheless, the winner was fractionally slowest late on in a race which took until halfway to come to the boil and, likeable though he is, will face stiffer opposition if returning to the course next month.
The Lily Agnes was a superior edition, the best since at least 2014,in which four last-time winners went in with plausible claims and the two “timefigure” performers came to the fore.
Adonius won it in a useful time on conditions faster than advertised and while giving weight to Hickory Lad. The sectionals confirm that it was a well-run affair and a true result.
This was the best performance by a British-based two-year-old this season so far, for all that may not be saying as much as tends to be the case. Adonius was being closed on by Hickory lad at the death and looks a 5f performer at this stage to me.
