What are the aims of the column?
The aims of the column remain the same as they were 10 years ago – as the previous FAQ has always stated they are as follows:
To provide an interesting read, give punters a chance of backing a big-priced winner from time to time, and – just as importantly - hopefully get readers interested in the whole area of form study. In an era where young people seem to be drawn more towards sports betting or online poker as their initial punting experiences, it would be nice to be able to convince some newcomers to racing that studying form can be both interesting and worthwhile; I’m also keen to demonstrate that it’s possible to find value selections without any inside information.
Why can’t I get the prices you quote in your column?
It’s the lead UK tipping column on one of the country’s biggest horseracing websites, and (as of 2019) it has shown a profit of at least 199 points in each of its 10 years of existence. As a result, the bookmakers react very rapidly each morning when the column is published and cut the odds on selections very swiftly. Realistically, it probably wouldn't be a positive sign if someone writing a tipping column for a major website with a huge readership did not have a significant impact on prices.
What’s the point in the column then if the prices go so quickly?
Firstly, some punters do manage to get on at (or close to) the prices advised – not every time but there are plenty who tell me that they manage to do so frequently.
Other punters make their own judgement about what price they are willing to accept on betting exchanges as the selections often drift back in price after the initial cuts have been made. Still more punters state they enjoy reading the column even though they don’t necessarily try to back the selections. There are many punters who have stated that the column has improved their own punting.
It’s inevitable that major sites such as attheraces.com are going to feature tipping columns, but given the readership size it’s very important that these columns try to prove educational and develop readers’ interest in betting on horse racing.
That’s why there has always been a write-up, rather than just the name of a selection; the column isn’t intended to be simply a free tipping service.
Why do you quote your results at advised prices rather than SP?
Nobody will have managed to back all the selections at advised prices over the course of a year, but it’s still a much better guide to the future prospects of the column than Starting Price or Betfair SP. The column has shown a profit at Betfair SP in each of the three years from 2016-2018, but those profits varied from 99 points to 1 point, and it’s just as likely that the column could show a triple-figure loss at Betfair SP even in a successful year.
The reason for this is that when making my selections I have little idea what the SP/Betfair SP will be. Two of the column’s biggest winners in 2017 came in the space of a few days that October. Raashdy was advised at 33-1 and returned a Betfair SP of 34; Born To Reason was advised at 25-1 but returned a Betfair SP of 4.9. I can’t state strongly enough that punters should always know (or at least have a good idea of) the odds they are receiving when placing a bet, otherwise the concept of value punting goes out of the window. It makes no sense to assess the likely future profitability of a tipster by a method which is such a hostage to randomness, unless they are tipping very short-priced horses, which isn’t the case with this column.
How do you cope with losing runs?
The importance of understanding the reality of “losing runs” is one of the reasons why such detailed records of every selection are kept on the website. If you glance through each of the years, you will see lots of such losing sequences, yet the column has remained profitable.
This is an important lesson for newcomers to punting to learn – winning punters don’t win all the time. Indeed, in many years the profit has largely stemmed from around two or three golden months – most serious punters will tell you this is by no means unusual.
The detailed records also mean that readers can be assured that each selection has been included in the results, with any Rule 4 deductions made. Too many tipping services either don’t provide any records, or just quote a plus or minus figure with no evidence to back it up.
